The models and forecasters are beginning to see some agreement that something is going to change with the weather this week. A low pressure system that was initially going to dissolve as it hit a ridge of high pressure has now started sagging southward. A chance of snow is beginning to look like it may last Tuesday through Thursday. Some of the models are now estimating up to a foot of snow above 7,000 feet by Thursday.
That’s good news for the higher elevation resorts that hope to open on Friday, November 22nd. Mount Rose and the upper half of Heavenly should be looking much better by Friday. Areas with a lower elevation may be less happy with this storm as the tropical jet raises overnight temperatures and brings the snow level above the base of Squaw and just above the base of Alpine Meadows. Northstar may also have trouble getting much snow this week for their November 22nd opener.
Checking the GFS loop below, you can see that we sit on the southern edge of the jet for most of the storm. The latest GFS model does show a strong surge of precipitation as the front passes on Wednesday night, which will hopefully result in a rapidly lowering snow level and a more wintery finish to the storm.
The other thing that looks pretty clear in the latest GFS loop is that this is a one hit wonder sort of storm cycle. The ridge rapidly builds back in over the weekend, causing the following system to dissolve. That same scenario seems to be the same case for a storm near Thanksgiving Day. If you go all of the way to the end of the GFS model, there seems to be a stronger system out there around December 1st. As BA at OpenSnow.com often points out, the longer range models are pretty unpredictable at this time of the year. Many locals are quick to point out that all of the forecasts are in that perpetual “there’s a storm 2 weeks out” mode. The teleconnections and good signs are in place…but it just ain’t happening. Overall, the NOAA 8-14 day forecasts still paint a pretty bleak picture:
There’s still hope, we hope. The NOAA folks just released reports that this calendar year has been the driest year on record in our part of the globe. It’s not a trend we want to continue. Make your sacrifice to ULLR today! I think I had better take the ski rack off of the car this week…
Won’t happen until KSL repent, my son.
– Ullr.
Heading to wash the car this morning!!
Been saving a month worth of duck hunting dirt/mud on the truck to squeeze all we can outta a system…car wash here I come.