It was a refreshing little change today, having the mountain more to ourselves once more. The first fresh snow we have seen in weeks brought out the masses this weekend. While the lift lines were never very long, with a few exceptions, there were parts of the mountain that still felt a little busy. Even being California Ski Safety Week, no amount of blue painted reminders on the snow or notifications from the Palisades Tahoe app could fix poorly behaved skiers and riders.
The official amount of new snow at the bottom of Roundhouse appeared to be 0.6 inches of new snow, which will mean that when the month ends on Friday we will be significantly behind average for the season. At mid-mountain there was more like 1-2 inches of new snow. At the top of the mountain, it’s anybody’s guess, as most of that snow was transported far into the Granite Chief Wilderness. This did make some areas of the mountain more pleasant for skiing and riding, but it certainly was not a game changer.
As the morning began today, Summit was once again on wind hold, with winds just below the typical threshold. Although ABC was open, the wind chills were below zero and I really had no interest in skiing fast corduroy laps. Just about all of the upper mountain off piste terrain has been somewhat schralped by the constant east winds over the last 10 days. That meant that the interesting terrain was on the lower mountain. Over the last three days, I’ve been trading vertical for interesting skiing. Poking around areas around Yellow lift and off of Roundhouse rewarded us with a variety of soft turns mixed in with scattered icy bumps. My lowest boot buckles were frozen solid the last three days, indicating we found some deeper pockets.
Truth be told, the new snow did not have much of an impact on the groomed slopes. They are the same as they have been for dozens of days. They start off perfect in the morning, but it doesn’t take too long before they get scraped down to the underlaying ice layer. Nothing ever really got soft today. Tomorrow we begin the warm up.
The Models Are Coming Into Agreement In A Way You May Not Like…Be Patient
We are not done with the northeast wind yet. They got pushed into Tuesday and now I see them on the Wednesday forecast as well. The good news is that they should not be as impactful as in closing lifts. The forecast temperatures creep up a few degrees each day through Thursday. By Friday the next system will start to move in.
People have been telling me that something big was coming for next weekend. I have been the non-believer, as the models were so inconsistent. They are finally coming into some agreement, which makes sense with this system now being 4 days out. Most of the models are very accurate at three days. You may think of AI as something that is a new thing, but computer weather models are artificial intelligence that has been around for quite some time.
TL;DR is that the first system in this pattern change change has an AR component to it. Where that firehose of moisture points has everything to do with the outcome. Today, almost every one of the models shows that AR event more near the Oregon border. That keeps us on the warmer side of the jet stream, meaning less precipitation and a higher snow level.
Below is a gallery of the latest runs of 5 different models showing total potential snowfall through Sunday. Of those, only the german ICON model shows significant snowfall from Tahoe southward. The other easy to see observation is that in all of the models, that band of expected snowfall is very narrow, indicating higher snow levels (ie just the crest). Various AFDs have been calling for snow levels around 6500-8000 feet through the weekend. Individual model runs are not a forecast and more importantly, singular model runs like the GFS are far less reliable than ensemble models like the GEFS. Click any of these images to biggerize them and enable scrolling through the gallery.
The GEFS is a blend of 30 different models that take into account different initialization factors. I’ve mentioned several times this month that the GEFS has been the champ of calling this dry season. Here’s what it shows for snow this weekend:
One or two inches after rain turns to snow…ouch. This seems to be just the beginning of a stronger start to February. Here’s the PNA Index and it’s looking hopeful for a weak trough in the Pacific. That transition doesn’t really happen until next week.
Looking at the “more rational” GEFS total snowfall output over the next 10 days will give a guy some hope. That last run shows up to two feet of new snow by next Thursday. Also note the wider band, indicating lower snow levels. This is the level headed “ensemble” solution.
The standard GFS run for the same time period shows a bit more of a dream run, total reset next week, with as much as 60 inches of snowfall. This all depends on a weakening of the Baja Ridge that has been omnipresent this season. Fingers are crossed for a reset. I wish I could find an explanation of the teleconnections that the models are using to forecast such a major change.
Safety Tip Of The Day
Apparently California believes that it only needed one day to educate skiers and riders about mountain safety, which was January 25th. It used to be a week long endeavor. In an effort to make the mountain safer for everybody we will continue, here’s my tip of the day. If you are considering turning off of a trail to go someplace different: the Yellow lift, the ABC lift or the Chalet – always slow down and go behind other skiers and riders. Do not overtake them and then make a sudden turn.
This has happened to me three times over the last two days. You would think it is common sense, but apparently not. Thanks for coming to my TED Talk. See you out there tomorrow.
I went up Summit once today. Then I asked my self why?
😂