At Least We Are Not Talking About The “R Word”

It was just two weeks ago that we spent a lot of time talking about the dreaded “R word”. You know, that stuff that soaks your gloves and makes ski slopes mushier than a bowl of oatmeal. We asked for drier conditions and that wish has been delivered. Sadly it’s been over delivered, because the forecasts continue to look dry and drier. Some forecasters may have jinxed us by calling out a potential change in the forecast yesterday, only to have to take that back today.

There were a set of model runs yesterday morning that put some snowfall into the forecast out around day 13, but the last 6 models runs have erased that idea. Here’s a GIF of the last 13 runs of the GEFS for total snowfall during the model run period (the next 16 days) You can watch that snow evaporate right before your eyes.

We’ve been accustomed to showing you a GIF of the 500mb pressure anomalies this season. Bluish indicates low pressure and reddish indicates high pressure. Continuing the science lesson, the winds around high pressure are clockwise and the winds around low pressure systems are couterclockwise. We get the worst of the east winds when we are caught with red to our north and blue to our south. Sadly the GIF below shows we are not totally done with this pattern yet. We get a bit of a break the next few days, but then the winds rebuild with little or no snow.

So the bad news is that there is no snow in the forecast yet. The good news is there is no “r word” in the forecast. Counting out 16 days puts us almost to the end of January. Doing some very quick “back of an envelope” math, given the very small amount of snow we have seen in January, we would end January at somewhere around 62% of average snowfall. That’s not a great place to be.

I have started the “Crocs Til It Snows” movement. I’m wearing Crocs, or the cheap knockoffs I bought in Germany, to and from the mountain until it snows. It’s a new thing that I am trying. It is untested, but maybe it will work. No, I do not have any of those snowflake charms on mine. Feel free to join my protest to Mother Nature. But if you don’t try it and it doesn’t snow, I am blaming you.

Just Keep Skiing And Riding

I am not quitting skiing yet. You just have to take this sport for what you get. Some days are better than others, but all can be good for at least some skiing. The weekend was challenging with so many people on the mountain. The relaxation of pressure today was welcome. Unfortunately the winds were not relaxed. Summit remained closed today and the temperatures were a bit uncomfortable. Today I wore my second warmest down parka for skiing and it would not have been enough for a trip up ABC this morning. The windchill was reported at -13° this morning. I hope I don’t have to bring out the warmest one any time soon.

I spent 90% of my time today seeking out anything I could find off piste that was skiable. There’s quite a bit of stuff that we deemed skiable today, mostly off of Roundhouse. This situation should improve tomorrow.

We have a slight warming trend over the the next four days. It’s not much but it is significant. This should result in some softening of slopes. We could see a continuation of some corn development that we were seeing before the weekend chill down. Keep in mind that north facing slopes will likely remain about the same as they have been, firm and firmer. Also keep in mind that higher elevation terrain is still scoured and sculpted. Moguls will remain as moguls.

Expect the largest improvements in south facing terrain. South-ish facing groomed slopes will likely see the most improvment. Sunspot, Sherwood Run, Scott Ridge and Bobby’s are all prime examples at this time of year. Sherwood Face and Robin Hood will take a bit more time in their ungroomed states. Lakeview slopes also don’t get enough sun exposure at this time of year except for Outer Outer. Solar Flare is also a good candidate except it’s looking bony again.

Warmer temperatures might encourage more rapid corn development, as long as we get a good refreeze at night. But warmer temperatures would be very bad for a minimal snowpack, especially on Sherwood. We have to be careful what we wish for here. We asked for the wet stuff to stop and look where we are now!

See you out there tomorrow.