Suboptimal

I know, all days of skiing are good, right? That said some days are much better than others. This was not one of those days. No “woohoo” type sounds were heard this morning, unless people were thinking of the lack of traffic on 89 or the ease of parking today. Then again in my last report, I did mention that there was rain in the forecast for both days of the weekend.

Ultimately, we had a bunch of wind yesterday, but little snow or rain. But sometime overnight, the front did arrive, bringing about 3/4 of an inch of precipitation to the mountain overnight. Unexpectedly, the temperatures did fall overnight, so a portion of that precipitation did fall as some sort of frozen slush or sleet or really wet snow. It definitely was not a powder day. The new snow was not evident at the base area. There was an inch or two near the top of Roundhouse and likely more at the top of Summit.

I can’t tell you how much was at the top as I chose not to go there this morning, with visibility measuring in the 0.00001 feet range. Very few people I talked to did more than one lap on Summit, at least during the morning hours before the clouds thickened and a drizzle began. There will be better days this season, said with absolute certainty.

Contrary to yesterday’s 10-20 minute TLC line, there were no lines today. Still the groomed slopes felt a bit busy, as not much was regroomed in the wee hours of the morning. Much of the off piste snow started somewhat sticky, and then became even stickier as the drizzle added moisture to the snow. Some areas were literally like fly paper.

Not all groomed slopes fared well. Weasel Run stayed fairly good with its lack of pitch. But taking Ridge Run as an example, it quickly turned into an inclined hockey rink covered with random piles of wet cement. I did not have a run of the day. But a ski buddy, whose is a very good skier, chose Summer Road off of Scott as a “run of the day”: groomed, low pitch, low traffic and good visibility. Yes, it was that kind of day.

The Weather Ahead

I think we got through the wettest of the wet for now. There is a 30% chance of snain for tomorrow, which I prefer to look at as a 70% chance of staying dry tomorrow. Then it looks like Santa and his weather helpers do their best to bring us a white Christmas, with most of that snow falling Christmas Eve day. The snow levels crash down to levels where skiing becomes way more fun.

The models vary as to exactly how much snow will fall from this storm. It’s not into “game changer” status; it will be more like “a nice refresh”. Below is a GIF that compares 8 different models for total snowfall through Christmas day. I am happy to say I used a tool online to slow the GIF down so you can more easily compare. The GFS is the champion for the storm, showing 12-16 inches possible. The GDPS is the party pooper, showing only 4-6 inches.

Christmas Day itself looks to be relatively clear and cold, so I would expect it to be busy. There’s a system passing mostly to the north at the end of the week, which right now looks like we would see more clear snow. I would rather see drying rather than more rain myself. The forecast for next week has now gone dry, seen in the last 7 model runs of the GFES. The GIF below shows the deep low for Tuesday, the weak low for Thursday and then ridging settle in after that.

As I am writing this report it is dry with blue skies in Truckee, but the webcam at Alpine Meadows still shows that it is cloudy and a bit drizzly. I’ve got a Jimmy Buffet Christmas album streaming on the HomePod and relaxed with all of my Christmas shopping done. See you out there tomorrow.