We have one month to go before the official start of meteorological winter, but with a lot of cold temperatures and the magic of snowmaking, the mountains are starting to look more snowy. Mother Nature is also being more cooperative over the next 5 days, with two storms bringing the potential of 12-18 inches of natural snowfall to the Sierra by Sunday. Next week, temperatures may warm a bit for those that are not ready to let go of fall just yet.
Below is the roundup of snowmaking going on around Tahoe (and Mammoth) this morning. There’s more productivity this week, but not as much as some might like. Here’s the gallery and clicking on any photo will biggerize it so you can see some detail:
Like last week, Mount Rose continued to be the champion of snowmaking. That’s appropriate, given that their often used tagline is “Where the snow is”. That said, at this time of year we are often in a weather inversion, where the low temperatures are at the base of the mountain and the upper mountains are often above freezing. But this week we have an active flow from the northeast that is preventing the stagnation that allows cold air to sink. The high elevation of Mount Rose has allowed for round the clock snowmaking over the last couple of days. With a kick from some natural snowfall they could make their announced November 8th opening. They are not totally confident yet. A check of day ticket sales shows nothing available before the 27th.
The snow guns at Alpine Meadows have also been active during the cold nights this week in the Hotter Wheels zone. There is still a long ways to go there as the daytime temperatures have been warmer. I would not read too much into this yet. I even noted the TLC lift spinning this morning. The recent practice has been to open the Weasel Run only for staff training and race training before the announced opening date. We have only seen an early opening a day or so early since the mountain became a part of the Borg. So it’s the proverbial “snowball’s chance”…
Over the hill at Palisades, things are much more quiet. Even though the only major announcement for upgrades this year was in snowmaking, it was not happening this morning. The photo above was from the upper mountain, but the lower mountain is also showing not much, if any, snowmaking going on. I am not sure what that means, other than the wait will continue. Boreal also has nothing going on, which is weird. I have skied Boreal on manmade snow on October 11th. Mammoth and Northstar also had guns firing this morning. Correction: Using the Far East Cam, it looks like they have been blowing snow on the typical Red Dog zones.
Snowmaking Thoughts
One of our avid readers pointed out last week that snowmaking is not all that environmentally friendly, and I think that implies that we should be patient and wait for natural snowfall. As much as I would like to spin that thought completely, I can’t. Some of us just want to ski whenever we can, especially when it gets too cold for water sports and bike riding. I can offer a couple of points though:
- Snowmaking is less energy intensive than it used to be. The technology has changed, making snow guns far more efficient. The use of automated technology means that mountains can be much more selective about when and where snow is made.
- Electricity is getting greener. The push toward greener energy sources means that electricity is probably more abundant than any time in my lifetime. Contrary to what some politicians would have you believe, solar energy and wind energy have become a very big part of our nation’s energy needs and that trend should continue. Being able to use less coal, remove hydroelectric dams on some rivers and reducing nuclear energy needs are good for the environment. Unfortunately, a huge part of new electricity is now being used for cryptocurrency generation and powering artificial intelligence, both with dubious value. I prefer snow on the mountains rather than channeling electricity to supercomputers.
- Ski areas need snowmaking to ensure that they do not miss the critical Christmas holiday period. Last season is a prime example, where we skied on manmade snow well into January. It would be disastrous for the big ski resorts to miss the holiday window. It drives pass sales, vacation rentals, lesson bookings, ski team enrollment and employee retention. Ski areas cannot just hope for the best and then start making snow in a big panic in mid-December. It takes time to lay down a base, so most areas start that process in early November.
Two Storms In The Pipe Line
The longer term models are all over the place this week, so instead I will focus on the short term models. We have a system moving in this afternoon and another for the weekend. None of these are huge, but we do have our first Winter Weather Advisory of the season for tonight into Friday. It’s likely we will also see our first chain controls of the season over the next 24 hours. Odds are we will see I-80 on hold or closed sometime in the next five days when some knucklehead with bald tires makes a run at Donner Summit so the kids can make a snowman. Update: Correct on both predictions!
Depicted below is the last 10 runs of the GEFS for total snowfall through the weekend. Some runs have shown up to two feet of snow, others as little as 6-8 inches. Given that we are getting closer to the season, it’s time to spend more time looking at these ensemble runs, as they are generally more skilled. That said, all of the models I looked at today had two storms with several inches of snow possible for each. Model agreement is good.
Update: So far it looks like performance is on the low side of these models. Storm number one was a flake or two. Storm two is now forecast at 4-6 inches.
For those that like the simple, here’s the next 4 days at the mid mountain level at Alpine Meadows. We love those snowy icons! Also looking at the temperatures, there looks to be an opportunity for round the clock snowmaking at our favorite mountain.
And for those that like it a bit more technical, here’s a quick clip from the morning forecast discussion at the Reno office of NOAA:
Do I Only Think About Skiing?
I never really stop thinking about skiing, ever. That said, I do other things beside go skiing and dream of going skiing. We have continued to bike ride all over the area over the last week. I am pretty close to breaking my mileage record set in 2021, which included a large part of the pandemic. I just have ten miles to go thanks to my reducing my standards. Typically I don’t ride if it’s under 50°, but yesterday we went for an eight mile loop around the airport at 41°. It’s currently 36° with cloudy skies so today is likely a “no go”.
We also got down to the coast for a few days over the weekend, thanks to invitations from family and friends. Here was the scene at the dog beach in Carmel Sunday, thanks to an invite from Olympian Brita Sigourney:
It sure was nice to have a little taste of warmth. Andy was in Hawaii recently and he was sending some photos that sure made me jealous. He claims he is now prepared to go skiing.
You are the most authentic snow reporter in Tahoe. Thank you.
Great summary photos Mark. Thank you. May I spread to my friends in CO, WY, SoCal, MT, WA, OR & ID?
👍
As long as we’re talking about other resorts, if I were able to post a photo, it would show that a petite ski area with more vertical than Alpine Meadows that clings to the side of an extinct volcano on the southern reaches of the Colorado Plateau and that so far has managed to escape the clutches of hedge funds and their intensive “wallet capture” efforts is making snow but not much has stuck to the ground. You’d see that at around 10,500′ to 11,000′ (the ski hill tops out at 11,500′) it has remained cold enough that snow is sticking to the trees, but at the 9,300′ base you’d see not a wisp of snow and even a few aspen trees still showing fall colors. Too far south for the current stream of storms, the mountain waits in the sun, with a mere dusting of snow forecast for the weekend. Nonetheless, mountain management says skiing and riding will begin Nov. 22. Perhaps the kind of snow-making magic discussed in today’s post will make that possible.
Whatever happened to the Unofficial Rose guy?
That is a long saga that will likely not be shared here 🫢
Nailed it by predicting both chain controls and a Highway 80 closure, and on day one of this storm cycle. Good job.
Boreal’s snowmaking team can’t keep key employees. rumor has it a leader of the “snow placement” crew at boreal took a job at rose with less responsibility, less stress, and better pay. but that’s just a rumor.
It sure would explain why boreal seems to have completely given up on early season snowmaking. What ever happened to their “year round” snowmaking machine that a much more well known blog wrote about 100 posts on several summers ago?
Oh and to answer the question of what happened to the unofficial rose guy, life happened. Rumor is that he was forced to stop skiing there for a while thanks to some uncool actions that patrol had warned him about multiple times. but again, that’s just an “unconfirmed rumor,” and to my knowledge he skied there pretty often last season. just no more blog.
Ski ya soon Redacted!