Changeable Weather Ahead?

We keep waiting for a sign that winter weather is on the way, bringing us a chance to start skiing sometime next month. Last week we saw a little bit of snow and most areas did blow some snow for a night or two. Unfortunately my prediction that warming temperatures would put an end to that this week was correct. Most of the mountains have seen lows dipping only to the low 40’s. At my location in Truckee it’s currently 26° this morning, perfect for making snow. Alas it’s pretty flat in my neighborhood, so snowmaking here is not worth it unless I really need to make a snowman for Halloween. Here’s a roundup of snowmaking status as of this morning at four ski areas:

Yup, the venerable Mount Rose is the only mountain that has had much of any productivity this week, and most of that was done a week ago. At least they were trying this morning! Still my money would be on Mount Rose to be the first mountain to open in Tahoe. The stated opening date, weather and conditions permitting, is November 8th. That would even beat Mammoth Mountain by a week!

One thing that has changed at Mount Rose is their opening strategy. Back in the day, Rose would open with just a minimal amount of terrain open with snowmaking. There has been years where they opened only with magic carpet, and yes I skied that. Then there was the old Ponderosa lift, slower even than the old Hot Wheel lift. It was a cold 16 minutes up for two minutes of skiing down. When “Pondo” was replaced by The Wizard beginner lift, it became the season opener. Yup, I have done a week straight there too! Fortunately the new policy is to open top to bottom on the Northwest chair, thanks to the addition of snow making in Kit Carson Bowl.

There was a time when Alpine Meadows had a foot in the early opening game. With good snowmaking coverage and a relatively smooth surface, Kangaroo could get open early too. Improved snowmaking on Hotter Wheels and a better ability to handle early season crowds has pushed the focus to that part of the mountain. Last season that turned out to be fortuitous as that was all we had for about a month.

What About Natural Snowfall?

The popular ski blogs and northern California media are beginning to hype a winter storm for the late weekend and Monday. At one point they had forecast as much as a foot of snow over the summits. But we are right in the heart of inside slider season. Typically that means that storms come more directly from the north, bringing much of the system into Nevada, Utah and Colorado. We get a lot of cold air and an unpredictable amount of snow, depending on the exact position of the jet stream.

Below is the “model trend GIF” that depicts the last dozen runs of the GFS for total snowfall through the end of the month. The good news is that all of the model runs do show a meaningful accumulation of snow in Tahoe, ranging from 2 to 12 inches. So we have some decent agreement. The Canadian and ICON models are also somewhat in agreement. The Euro model is not so sure. Overall this is the best model agreement we have seen this fall. Snow levels could drop to 4000 to 5000 feet, which is good for October.

So there’s not a ton of natural snow in the forecast just yet. The forecast discussion from the Reno office of NOAA does hint at another storm starting to show in the models as we start November. This is the news we like to hear.

The Cold Weather Should Stick Around

The better news here is that the colder temperatures are looking more consistent. Below are the 6 to 10 day temperature outlook and the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook. I will remind you that this illustrates the chances of colder temperatures, not a measure of how much colder it will be than average. We are almost certain to be colder than average in the next 10 days, and have a better than 50% chance of staying that way into week two.

This is the sort of forecast that gives mountain managers just a bit of comfort. Nobody wants to spend thousands of dollars making snow, only to have it melt the following week. We are hopefully heading into a pattern of increasing confidence, as I am ready for the transition from biking to skiing.

The biking has been significantly better with some moisture from the previous storm. But the days are getting short. At anything below 50° it’s just not that pleasant for riding bikes, especially with a north wind. This week it gets warm enough around noon and too cold by four. It’s a small window. After a 20 mile tour around Tahoe Donner yesterday afternoon with Bobble, it took another four hours in a warm house to remove the chill from my body. Yes, I am ready for ski season.

Let It Snow!