It’s getting to be that uncertain time of the year, that time where you just can’t count on the weather. The models are constantly shifting, showing rain and a potential for snow one minute, and then taking it all away just a few hours later. Still, I will take it. It’s better than that stagnant pattern of endless summer weather. The local mountain bike trails are getting very dusty and the fear of fire danger weighs heavily on anyone that lives in the area.
The good news is there is some rain, snow and cold weather in the forecast for the next few days. There’s not going to be much of it, but it is something different. There’s a solid chance of rain and a thunderstorm for Wednesday followed by a round of unseasonably cold air. Overnight temperatures are forecast into the teens Thursday and Friday nights, adding a possibility of snow to lake level. We are not talking about enough for skiing or sledding. The point forecast for Alpine Meadows calls for up to an inch of snow by Friday morning.
We had a pretty good run of model runs overnight that brought the hope of some real snowfall next week. I cherrypicked the best run to show you here. It showed the potential for 15-24 inches of snow by mid next week. But the weather geek in me went looking for confirmation from the other models and they all agreed that the GFS was smoking something again. Two runs later on the GFS, the system for next week completely disappeared again. Instead we get more cool weather, but not cold enough for snowmaking systems to kick into gear yet.
Then again the models could flip again. The models have the most difficulty figuring out what will happen as the seasons are changing. So uncertain it will be, making the planning for bike rides, hikes and potential last camping trips just a bit more challenging.
Update: I’m not liking how this pattern has evolved. The weakening of this storm is due to it becoming an inside slider. That brings strong north winds through the weekend that will greatly increase fire danger. Red Flag warnings are up and power shutoffs are likely in many areas. Winter can’t come soon enough 😕
Also Uncertain….The Future Of Homewood
Last week, the news broke that Homewood Ski Resort will not open for the ’24-’25 season. It’s the sort of news I would usually report on much quicker, except that I was tooling around the desert southwest in a world of slot canyons and hoodoos. While I occasionally had cell service or wi-fi, the red rock and golden sunsets took precedence over writing a blog post.
The announcement was not a surprise to anybody that has been paying close attention and reading between the lines. Homewood had quietly cancelled all J1’s for the upcoming season last month. Astute observers also noted that no season pass sales were ever available this summer. The decision to not operate for the season has been in the works for some time.
Sadly it’s private equity investment that is once again ruining the world for people that just want to ski. Since 1962, Homewood has been offering a calmer and quieter experience that offered fewer crowds, lower costs and longer lasting powder that Alpine Meadows or Palisades Tahoe. Most people would agree that the “skiing right into the lake” feeling is unique. Only Diamond Peak and Heavenly come close to that. Then there’s the soulful experience of hiking out to Quail Face or shredding low angle powder in Hobbitland. It will all be missed.
Why will Homewood not open next season? It’s complicated. The mountain has always operated on a shoestring and that meant that there hasn’t been much reinvestment in mountain facilities. In 2006, JMA Ventures, the owners of Ghirardelli Square in San Francisco, purchased Homewood. Hopes ran high that they would make the necessary capital investments in mountain infrastructure. Instead, the capital went into real estate development. Homewood has continued to limp along, still offering a respite to those hoping to avoid the crazy town that Alpine Meadows and Palisades Tahoe becomes on big weekends or powder hours. In recent years, traffic jams on Highway 89 probably prevented many people from choosing Homewood, which likely had an increasing impact on their pass and ticket sales.
Over the last two years, the owners and investors of Homewood developed plans to turn Homewood into the latest private ski resort. There’s been a bitter battle between the investment groups and a group of mountain supporters under the name Keep Homewood Public. You may have seen the many banners along the west shore of Tahoe. Most recently, the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency seemed to indicate that they were also interested in preserving public access to the mountain. That’s when the investment groups played the nuclear option and announced that Homewood would not operate for the upcoming season after one major investor pulled funding until TRPA sees it their way. It sure seems to me that the mountain, and the people that work there, play there or have businesses that rely on the mountain, are being held hostage.
Ultimately it’s time to protect the ever decreasing number of ski areas we have in the United States. It’s so unlikely that another new ski area will ever be built, and with the demand seeming stronger than ever, we must keep mountains open. I am not sure what the best solution looks like. Would having Homewood be snatched up by Alterra or Vail be a good solution? Maybe not ideal, but it would be better than closing the mountain. Back in Vermont, a very well funded group of locals just purchased Killington. Could it happen here? The number of people that enjoy Homewood each season is far less than Killington. But there is also a lot of money on the west shore…but maybe those are the people waiting for their own little slice of a private ski area in their backyard.
Tonight I raise a glass of whisky to Homewood, and the people that love skiing and riding Homewood. I’m sure that many of you will end up at Alpine Meadows this season if nothing changes. We will see you there.
Having Altera purchase it would only increase the development risk. They have already proven to be a poor developer. Their “Wallet Capture” plan is even less appealing at Homewood.
Alterra would likely want a water park and 500 two bedroom condos.
Maybe Alterra will shut down Palisades and Alpine if they do not get their way with Placer County.
Regards, Peter
Probably so…
During the TRPA meeting a lady spoke towards the end and mentioned a conversation she had with Warren Miller years ago about connecting Alpine and Homewood. I’ve heard that rumor in the past, back in 2010 when we had a combo Alpine/Homewood pass I thought it might have some validity. Has any serious work been done on this opportunity?
There was a short period when JMA owned Alpine Meadows and Homewood. The idea of a link between the two was the talk of the town at that time. Ultimately if you look at the cost and issues with the B2B, multiply that by about three… it would never pencil out.
Homewood already has a waterpark. It’s across the street and boast a very busy Marina. Two marinas really if you count Obexers.
There has been some significant condo style development on the North side of the area. It will be interesting to see if the sales demand, wanes somewhat.
I have worked both sides of the mountain over my skiing career. As an Instructor, in the Tahoe Ski Bowl days and transportation on the Homewood side.
When the two owners merged, I was hoping for some upgrades to the lift system.
I was a strong supporter of the original plan, along with many people, an hoping for Homewood to Blossom out.
When the big TRPA review event was held at the base lodge, many showed up to weigh in. There seemed to be positive hope that Homewood grow. There was even a rumor that the company might put a chair up to Ellis peak!
When I first skied Homewood in the early sixties, It became my family go to. Since their kids ticket price was in effect until you reached 16 years old and Squaw ‘faded out theirs out at 12 ,my thrifty parents stayed put.
I live a mile from the Area and was hoping for the Company to have their Plan completed. I don’t think I’ll live long enough to see any of the potential achieved.
Please keep Vail Corp out of the area! They have ruined many a ski area, including Heavenly. For us on the South Side, that leave The Ranch, sans many trees.
Sad
Great stuff as always, Mark.
However, I am always amazed at some of the comments and public feedback on situations like this (not necessarily here, but elsewhere online). Homewood is a business and as a business, it needs to make money. If it doesn’t, it will eventually run out of money, be bankrupt and just shut down. Alot of people wish it were like the government and didn’t have to worry about revenue less expenses, but that is just not reality.
Currently, the Homewood business model is broken. Revenue is less than operating expenses. As a result, one of the investors every year had to write a check, not as in investment, not to increase their ownership, but just to cover that year’s operating losses. That situation is not sustainable. Something has to change about the business to make it viable long term. I have not followed to details, but can assume that there was alot of community pushback from them trying to do real estate development and create additional value and income to make the business viable.
It feels like there are always alot of unicorns who just insist they have a right for Homewood to stay the same and not change. People, this is not an option. Their current model is broken and that is why there is no skiing this year. If they are not allowed to make changes to their business model, they have two real viable options: (i) it will stay closed, rather than uselessly funding operating losses or (ii) they will sell the mountain.
When the head of Keep Homewood Private says “the resort could stay open under the currently approved plan if it wanted to,” who is going to cover the operating losses to make that happen?
Just my two cents from the bleacher seats….
Well right now it’s just like all politics in America. Each side pushes to the extreme in their direction. Homewood can’t keep operating at the dirtbag ski area level. But Tahoe can’t afford to get gentrified to the point where there are no locals to be workers. Someplace in the middle is a place of compromise where Homewood survives. I think thats where They were headed in that direction until privatization became fashionable. I think that’s what TRPA is thinking.
This.
I’m a 14-year peak-time employee at Homewood. Employees maybe received 30-second advance notice, via email, before the news was released to the public. The email promised the management/HR would reach out to employees and help them find another position. Not a word in 5 days. I’m just weighing my options, but I’ve got my Mt. Rose, Ikon, and Sky Tavern passes so I’ll see you on the slopes!!!
Wow, what a heartbreak. Sadly, I did not ever make it to Homewood when I was skiing Tahoe . We generally went to Alpine and Squaw, as we called them. I missed the ski-into-the-lake phenomenon.
Here’s hoping that Homewood somehow avoids the hedge fund “wallet capture” train wreck and opens to the public once again.
“It’s so unlikely that another new ski area will ever be built.”
That’s true, but I’m just here to note that’s a choice. It’s absolutely a choice. A host of laws were passed in the 70s to make this true — some of them very good laws — but it remains a choice made by voters. We could unmake it. We could build again. We could have abundance. We could have more ski resorts, more mountains, more lifts, more runs, more fun, more accessibility, more skiers spread out in more areas, more family days, more exercise, more views, more….skiing.
There is a balance between preservation and growth when it comes to the Sierras (like anywhere), but the thumb is very much on one side of the scale now. It needn’t always be. We have elections for a reason.
It seems more likely than ever that it is about to change….