Uncertainty

It’s getting to be that uncertain time of the year, that time where you just can’t count on the weather. The models are constantly shifting, showing rain and a potential for snow one minute, and then taking it all away just a few hours later. Still, I will take it. It’s better than that stagnant pattern of endless summer weather. The local mountain bike trails are getting very dusty and the fear of fire danger weighs heavily on anyone that lives in the area.

The good news is there is some rain, snow and cold weather in the forecast for the next few days. There’s not going to be much of it, but it is something different. There’s a solid chance of rain and a thunderstorm for Wednesday followed by a round of unseasonably cold air. Overnight temperatures are forecast into the teens Thursday and Friday nights, adding a possibility of snow to lake level. We are not talking about enough for skiing or sledding. The point forecast for Alpine Meadows calls for up to an inch of snow by Friday morning.

We had a pretty good run of model runs overnight that brought the hope of some real snowfall next week. I cherrypicked the best run to show you here. It showed the potential for 15-24 inches of snow by mid next week. But the weather geek in me went looking for confirmation from the other models and they all agreed that the GFS was smoking something again. Two runs later on the GFS, the system for next week completely disappeared again. Instead we get more cool weather, but not cold enough for snowmaking systems to kick into gear yet.

Then again the models could flip again. The models have the most difficulty figuring out what will happen as the seasons are changing. So uncertain it will be, making the planning for bike rides, hikes and potential last camping trips just a bit more challenging.

Update: I’m not liking how this pattern has evolved. The weakening of this storm is due to it becoming an inside slider. That brings strong north winds through the weekend that will greatly increase fire danger. Red Flag warnings are up and power shutoffs are likely in many areas. Winter can’t come soon enough 😕

Also Uncertain….The Future Of Homewood

Last week, the news broke that Homewood Ski Resort will not open for the ’24-’25 season. It’s the sort of news I would usually report on much quicker, except that I was tooling around the desert southwest in a world of slot canyons and hoodoos. While I occasionally had cell service or wi-fi, the red rock and golden sunsets took precedence over writing a blog post.

The announcement was not a surprise to anybody that has been paying close attention and reading between the lines. Homewood had quietly cancelled all J1’s for the upcoming season last month. Astute observers also noted that no season pass sales were ever available this summer. The decision to not operate for the season has been in the works for some time.

Sadly it’s private equity investment that is once again ruining the world for people that just want to ski. Since 1962, Homewood has been offering a calmer and quieter experience that offered fewer crowds, lower costs and longer lasting powder that Alpine Meadows or Palisades Tahoe. Most people would agree that the “skiing right into the lake” feeling is unique. Only Diamond Peak and Heavenly come close to that. Then there’s the soulful experience of hiking out to Quail Face or shredding low angle powder in Hobbitland. It will all be missed.

Why will Homewood not open next season? It’s complicated. The mountain has always operated on a shoestring and that meant that there hasn’t been much reinvestment in mountain facilities. In 2006, JMA Ventures, the owners of Ghirardelli Square in San Francisco, purchased Homewood. Hopes ran high that they would make the necessary capital investments in mountain infrastructure. Instead, the capital went into real estate development. Homewood has continued to limp along, still offering a respite to those hoping to avoid the crazy town that Alpine Meadows and Palisades Tahoe becomes on big weekends or powder hours. In recent years, traffic jams on Highway 89 probably prevented many people from choosing Homewood, which likely had an increasing impact on their pass and ticket sales.

Over the last two years, the owners and investors of Homewood developed plans to turn Homewood into the latest private ski resort. There’s been a bitter battle between the investment groups and a group of mountain supporters under the name Keep Homewood Public. You may have seen the many banners along the west shore of Tahoe. Most recently, the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency seemed to indicate that they were also interested in preserving public access to the mountain. That’s when the investment groups played the nuclear option and announced that Homewood would not operate for the upcoming season after one major investor pulled funding until TRPA sees it their way. It sure seems to me that the mountain, and the people that work there, play there or have businesses that rely on the mountain, are being held hostage.

Ultimately it’s time to protect the ever decreasing number of ski areas we have in the United States. It’s so unlikely that another new ski area will ever be built, and with the demand seeming stronger than ever, we must keep mountains open. I am not sure what the best solution looks like. Would having Homewood be snatched up by Alterra or Vail be a good solution? Maybe not ideal, but it would be better than closing the mountain. Back in Vermont, a very well funded group of locals just purchased Killington. Could it happen here? The number of people that enjoy Homewood each season is far less than Killington. But there is also a lot of money on the west shore…but maybe those are the people waiting for their own little slice of a private ski area in their backyard.

Tonight I raise a glass of whisky to Homewood, and the people that love skiing and riding Homewood. I’m sure that many of you will end up at Alpine Meadows this season if nothing changes. We will see you there.