The Longest Two Months

We are just under two months from the projected opening date for Palisades Tahoe on November 27th. Of course the standard disclaimer of “weather and conditions” permitting applies. There is also no guarantee of whether that means just the Palisades side or if it also includes Alpine Meadows. No matter what, these are always the longest two months of the year.

There’s been ski movies and ski sales to get us thinking about skiing again. We seen a few flakes of snow on the highest peaks around Tahoe. My ski dreams have kicked into high gear, happening nearly every night now. I get emails from a number of indie manufacturers me begging to try their new “most important new technology” ever in skis, boots and outerwear, which I will happily do when they start sending that stuff for free.

The big hope is that we get a lot of cold weather and those early season stalwarts of Mount Rose, Mammoth Mountain and Boreal Ridge can fire up the snow guns, offering some pre-season turns before the lifts spin at Palisades and Alpine Meadows. I will happily let those other mountains capture my wallet if they offer the opportunity for earlier turns, even if they are somewhat limited. Some skiing is better than no skiing. Mammoth has announced an opening day of November 15th. Given enough cold weather Mount Rose or Boreal could come in a week earlier or so. That’s only 40 days away and that gives a guy hope.

Yes there are other things to do in the summer season, with biking being my primary thing. My biking is a mix of paved bike trails, fire roads, flowy single track and easy mountain bike trails. It’s pretty much an every day thing for me when we are home. Here’s a heat map of my travels this summer. Sadly it’s not correctly color coded to easily see that I have lapped Donner Lake about three dozen times since ski season ended.

There’s still a lot more to explore. You probably noticed that my rides are pretty Truckee-centric as I am not a fan of loading up the bikes in our truck to get other places. It’s easier to just keep exploring from home. We’ve also done some riding this summer around Morro Bay and Bodega Bay. Next month we will do some riding in Southern Utah. Biking does keep me sane during the non-snowy seasons and it’s not a bad way to rehab frequent skier knees.

So How Is The Weather Forecast Looking As of Now?

First let’s look at the shorter term. As of this minute, it’s not trending the way we want. It’s been unseasonably hot this week, and that forecast continues into next week. Highs at the base of Alpine Meadows have been running in the mid to upper 70’s. It’s also been pretty dry over the last 10 days, which means dusty loose bike trails and an increasing danger of wildfires. Daniel Swain at WeatherWest.com issued this tweet yesterday about the situation:

That dome of heat is expected to hold in the western United States through mid-October. Yikes! I know, be thankful that were are not dealing with the ravages of Hurricane Helene here in California. Some of Swain’s later tweets today remind us that he has frequently written about the possibility of an ArkStorm 2.0 in our region. But right now the memories of the Davis Fire that nearly missed the Mount Rose and Sky Tavern ski areas and several expensive subdivisions in southern Reno is fresh on our minds. Sweating out the fear of wildfires in California during the months of October and November is really a thing. We keep our camper van somewhat loaded and in “ready to roll” position at this time of the year.

I will be sure to welcome any sign of rain or cooling as soon as we see it. Reduced fire danger and wetting down the local bike trails would be welcome, even if it does put a damper on camping and hiking.

What About The Seasonal Forecast?

The official NOAA forecast of a mild La Niña even was released a couple of weeks ago. This caused an avalanche of professional weather soothsayers and relatively less educated ski bloggers to release their winter weather forecasts for the winter snow potential. I would put myself somewhere in between those two extremes. All of the above do far better than the hopelessly inaccurate Farmer’s Almanac predictions.

Here’s one sample of a forecast published by Powder.com. It’s based on the general idea that in La Niña years the expectation is you get ridging in the Pacific Ocean, which brings the jet stream, or the storm track, more into the Pacific Northwest, rather than a zonal flow. Typically it means less consistent storm activity for Tahoe.

Looking at the long term outlook for La Niña from NOAA, the picture does not look as extreme. It puts us in the “Equal Chances” of above normal or below normal precipitation for 24/25. I agree with that forecast. There is not a strict correlation for precipitation amounts in Tahoe due to a La Niña forecast.

That said, many are pinning their hopes on shortened memories, digging back only to ’22-’23, where we saw 167% of average snowfall at Alpine Meadows during a La Niña season. The important thing to remember with these NOAA outlooks is they only predict the probability of wetter or drier seasons, not the amount of precipitation.

Temperatures also are not very predictable during La Niña years. The graphic below shows average winter temperatures for the 21 La Niña events over the last 50 years. It’s almost 50-50 for cold versus warm.

So what can we learn from this about La Niña? It’s basically a tool used by marketers and influencers to convince you to make early reservations at your favorite ski accommodation or buy new powder skis. There’s no real science that supports a guarantee that a La Niña winter will be good in Tahoe. The same holds true for El Niño winters like last winter. After all of the hype, Alpine Meadows had about 89% of average snowfall last season.

Here’s what I hope. I hope we have an average season at Alpine Meadows. When we get those big snow seasons, yes we get a lot of snow, but along with that comes a lot of hype. That brings people out in droves when we see InstaPosts proclaiming “It’s Deep!” I just want an average season where it’s not nutty around Tahoe. Here’s my unpopular opinion: I’m at the point where I would rather enjoy ten 4 inch days rather than one 40 inch day. But you do you, if you like standing in a mega line for one great run.

Last season proved that even with less than average snowfall, it’s possible to keep Alpine Meadows and the upper mountain at Palisades going through Memorial Day. I dig the novelty of skiing on the Fourth of July every decade or so, but that has become such a junk snow that it’s not my measure of a great season. For now I am going to look for that ridge in the west to break down and bring us some cooler temperatures and rain.

Off to plan tomorrow’s bike ride…but so ready to just go skiing.