A Little Behind But Not A Bust

Yes, this storm came in a little warmer and quite a bit later than what “the experts” thought would happen. Consequently, Hotter Wheels was able to stay open for the entire day yesterday and I did not even have to start up my snow blower until midday today. That’s led some to question the decision to announce the closure of Alpine Meadows today, especially when they were still holding out hope for skiing and riding the Snow King portion of Palisades. So let’s take a deeper dive into this storm.

It’s been a weird year for storms in California. We have had far more cutoff lows this season than normal. Those are the ones that just spin off the coast, keeping us in a warm southerly flow with higher snow levels. While this storm looked like it was a traditional “Gulf of Alaska low”, it turns out it really is not. Not needing to snowblow or write a ski report, I spent some time learning yesterday afternoon. That meant I spent an hour watching Daniel Swain, of WeatherWest.com, explain how this storm was different than a typical winter storm during his YouTube “office hours”.

Typically, a winter storm system forms in the Gulf of Alaska, which has cold air. As the low moves down the coast it typically hugs the coast, or takes a drier inland path, becoming an “inside slider”. Most of the snowfall from those storms would be associated with the main cold front (in blue above). But this is not a typical winter, so, of course, this storm is an outlier.

Swain explains that the origin of this storm was actually in the Aleutian Straits, which means it starts off even colder. That cold air is taking a longer path directly over the Pacific Ocean, which has warmer than average water this winter. That warmer water saturates that colder air, which is the source for those crazy amounts of snow in the forecast. So for this storm, it’s those popcorn clouds behind the front that have the bulk of the potential snowfall. Also note how far away the low pressure system (the blue L)is as the cold front approached California. All of the energy of that low pressure system is just now getting here.

So the upshot is, this thing is just getting going. While the snowfall has not been huge yet, with only about 20 inches of snowfall over 24 hours, conditions on the mountain are rough to say the least. Here’s a shot of the base area from the Kangaroo Cam. That’s the visibility at the base area!

Here’s the winds on the mountain today. The red line is at the top of Summit. The blue line is at the top of Roundhouse. Summit has been gusting between 100-150mph all day, which is a big deal. The top of Roundhouse has been gusting 25-50mph today. Anything over 30 and Roundhouse gets to be a rodeo ride, not to mention the zero visibility thing. Update: Winds to 171 mph around 5 pm

There are no professional forecasters that are backing off on this storm yet. The forecast discussion still mentions periods of snowfall at 1-3 inches per hour. Some of the models show 4-6 inches an hour possible at times. At 3 inches per hour, it’s almost difficult to breath as you’re inhaling a lot of snow while skiing. Here’s the updated point forecast for Alpine Meadows:

Here’s the point where you can notice that the snow now continues into Sunday, Sunday night and Monday. Yup. The models are still calling for an additional 6-10 feet of snow from this system. There still is another smaller system next week. Then we could get a break.

Alpine Meadows Closed Again For Saturday

While writing this report, I just got the tweet that Alpine Meadows will be closed again tomorrow, Saturday, March 2nd. This is the right decision, and if you read my last report, this was my prediction. Just to even think about opening a lift or two requires that a larger number of people have to come in to make it all work. It’s not just a couple of liftees and patrollers – it’s plow people, diggers, ticket sellers, scanners, food service people, rental people. Many of those people have a long commute to get to Alpine Meadows and asking them to come in on a day where “maybe we can open” is not great, especially with hazardous driving conditions and possible road closures.

For the second day in a row, the marketing department is dangling the possibility of opening Red Dog, Resort Chair and First Venture tomorrow. Yes those areas are lower elevation and not as susceptible to winds. Just thinking about opening the mountain means that employees will be on the road to make the effort, not to mention the powder bros that are waiting to make use of their new 118mm underfoot pow skis to the test. They will be passing each other blindly on Highway 89 to be on first chair. Also there is avalanche potential on that portion of the mountain. Randy Davis died in an avalanche in Poulsen’s Gully in 2008, and nobody wants to see something like that happen again. Randy was a cool kid that barely made it to adulthood. My thought: If you’re going to close Alpine Meadows, you probably should close Palisades as well.

Saturday 6:40a update: Palisades also closed for Saturday.

Northstar did open today. But the lifts that were open were not the ones you want to ski on a powder day. Honestly I wouldn’t want to be out on Highway 267 in Martis Valley during a blizzard. I trust myself but not other drivers. I can wait to go skiing.

Liz Worgan posted some updates just now on the official Ops Blog. The videos speak loudly about what mountain ops staff is dealing with so the mountain can open as soon as possible after things wind down. Practice patience.