Gust ‘N Bust

Yeah, it was that kind of day. There was a whole lot of wind, but not much in the way of snow yet. Yesterday, I predicted that winds would shut down upper mountain lifts. Instead they were gusty enough to close most lifts at Alpine Meadows by 10:45 this morning. As I write this, I see on the webcam that they are pulling the plug on Roundhouse for the day. Still, I managed to get out on the hill for 6 very windy laps before things got shut down. That’s far better than the people that rolled into the parking lot only to find just Big Carpet spinning.

All in all there were some plusses to the skiing this morning:

• With the temperatures slightly above freezing and rain falling out of the sky, the groomed surfaces were not as bulletproof as expected. The surface was buttery smooth and carveable. As more snow loosened up, it even turned kind of wind buffy on Dance Floor and Weasel.

• Although the light was darned flat, the visibility was very good. The reason was that Mother Nature blew a lot of pine needles and other small debris out onto the slopes. This same tactic is used on race courses and mogul courses on flat light days.

With only Roundhouse, TLC, Meadow and Subway in operation at the start of the day, there was little off piste terrain to choose from. I tried it in two places. The first was in Chicken Leg, where the snow was frozen chicken beaks, and I took the Chicken Exit. I also glided up from Dance Floor into Rolls and Knolls, then immediately saw the error of my ways and returned to the groomed run. I don’t know what the temperature was at the base of Alpine Meadows yesterday afternoon, but I am certain my car said it was 47° at the top of Donner Summit yesterday afternoon.

While standing in the corral of Roundhouse for lap 6, I saw one of the strongest gusts I have seen at the base area. You could hear it rolling down from Weasel Saddle and then see the blowing snow. When it got to the base, it blew skis off the racks, blew people over in line, and tossed the gondola cars around like toys. Poor Karl, the pass scanner – that gust of wind blew his tablet out of his hands, blew his backpack all of the way down to First Aid and blew the contents of his plastic tub all across the base area. According to NOAA, it takes a gust of 60mph to knock people down. After ride number 6, a number of us called it and the lift was put on windhold shortly afterwards.

Here’s the winds from the Summit remote sensors at midday:

Noting here at 2:15, that all of the lifts at Alpine Meadows are now closed. On the other side of the hill KT22, Red Dog and Far East are still rolling. It’s one of those days where there is a benefit to the low elevation.

The point forecast for Alpine Meadows is still calling for the possibility of up to a foot of snow by tomorrow. Looking at the current satellite photo, I don’t see that as a likely solution. The bulk of the front has already passed us and seems to be focused on the southern Sierra, which is what the GEFS showed yesterday.

That Other Storm

All eyes are now on the second storm for this week. So far, the models are holding together, and even the major players are getting serious about the possibilities. Yesterday, I mentioned that this will be the biggest storm of the season. Looking back, I think we go back to January of 2021 that we were looking at something this big. Here’s just two PSA announcements posted this afternoon:

That said, it has not happened yet! While models have been remarkably consistent this week, there have been some adjustments. The Euro has trended downward a bit, as has the GEFS. The GFS is still in full on snowmageddon mode. If I had to take a guess at it today, based on a ton of model viewing and discussion reading….. my thoughts are 6 to 8 feet possible at Alpine Meadows with most of that falling Thursday and Friday. Winds are forecast to be at 120 mph or more during this part of the storm.

As of now, a Winter Storm Watch has been posted. I would expect that this will probably get upgraded to a Blizzard Warning.

If that comes to be, expect multiple road closures and possible mountain closures, especially Friday and Saturday. The safety of mountain employees should be first and foremost in our minds, not your need to try to ski powder that is possibly way too deep for you to even move. Instead you should focus on keeping yourself safe, stocking up ahead of time on essentials like food and gas for your snow blower and generator.

See you out there tomorrow, with hopefully more of the mountain open. I’ll check in with an updated look at the storm on Wednesday.