An Active Stormy Pattern Arrives

We’re looking at a series of storms arriving in Tahoe, and the first of those arrived a bit earlier than expected. My last report was so detailed, covering many different areas, that I neglected to really pay much attention to the storm coming in today. Forty eight hours ago, the models did not even have much to say about much potential for this first storm.

Pre-frontal showers and winds surprised many heading out to Alpine Meadows this morning. The forecast discussion suggested that things wouldn’t get going until late afternoon. But when I pulled out of my garage, the snow was falling and the winds were whipping it around. As I arrived at Alpine Meadows, there was blowing snow, resulting in blown over parking pylons, limited visibility and the threat of windholds on some lifts.

Fortunately I did arrive with appropriate ski wear, which is not always the case. We set out to Roundhouse at 9:05, seeing that the visibility and winds looked brutal on Summit. Looking back at the remote data page, the wind gusts were right at the cusp of putting Summit on windhold at 75-90 mph. Lower on the mountain, it appeared to be snowing, and the winds were only in the upper 20’s. Again referring to the remote data page, the base sensor shows no new snow this morning.

The ski conditions would explain that phenomenon. There were areas of runs where all new snow was stripped, right down to the firm corduroy, and areas where that new snow had drifted. The key to success this morning was to find the least wind affected run and that was likely Charity (Red-Green). Conditions there were relatively predictable, being sheltered from the wind by God’s Knob. In contrast, Red Ridge had patches of icy corduroy interspersed with pillows where the new snow was a few inches deep. That lead to some unpredictability when combined with the flat light.

I actually enjoyed some of the off piste runs a bit more, as the new snow filled in between moguls, making it easier to predict where the soft new snow would be. That was all good until both skis buried themselves in a larger drift on Rolls and Knolls, almost resulting in a double ejection. Instead it resulted in just a loud “Oomph”.

Yes there were definitely people out there that were enjoying the day, especially after they ponied up for a day ticket. In locker room 3, home of many jaded locals, most of the regulars had given up after a half dozen runs or so. Some people had to go grocery shopping or to pick up the mail and walk dogs. I chose to finally get those taxes done, and that made my wife happy. Tomorrow is likely to be much better for skiing.

Storm Number One

This storm kind of snuck in to the area, being a classic Gulf of Alaska low. They have been a rare breed this season, and that is why the models may have not seen it coming from a distance. We get some colder air with this storm, bringing snow levels to about 5000 feet by tonight. The GEFS ensembles are showing about 24 inches of snowfall over the next 36 hours. The automated point forecast for mid-mountain at Alpine Meadows are in good agreement, forecasting from 20-34 inches of snow in the next 36 hours. What’s interesting about the Winter Storm Warnings from both the Sacramento and Reno offices of NOAA only call for winds up to 50 mph. Tomorrow should be a good day and with my taxes done, I’ll be more prepared to enjoy it.

5pm Update: It’s sure looking like a weaker system than advertised…which has been a pattern this year.

5:30a Thursday update: This storm got pushed north, leaving our area just brushed by the tail end. The remote sensor showing 11 inches new at the base, which is something, but not on forecast. Not a complete bust but disappointing.

The Weekend Storm

The weekend storm is more of the cutoff low type storm we have been seeing a lot of this weekend. The low moves in near the coast and never pushes too far inland. As I mentioned two days ago, that keeps us in the warmer southerly flow on the eastern edge of the low. That means we never see much of the cold air behind the front, and snow levels look to run from 6-7K feet for this one. Two days ago, it looked like an atmospheric river could be entrained into the flow, which could bring additional snow and rain potential. The GEFS ensemble model runs today are not showing as much of that. Today’s runs show a potential for another 12-18 inches of snowfall. The GFS and the Canadian models are a bit more optimistic.

The timing on that storm is also still somewhat unpredictable. At this point it looks like it moves in late Saturday and lasts into Monday. I’ll update in my next report on Friday. Andy is not really our weather guy for tomorrow’s report.

Those two storms together should do a lot for bolstering our base, which is still thin, especially on south and west facing slopes. Also, it’s exactly what is needed to reset the mountain and cover up some of those mega moguls that have appeared.

Looking At The Longer Term

I would not call it “Februburied” or any of those other over-used marketing schticks just yet. It does look like we might make it through February with about average snowfall for Alpine Meadows. After the two storms detailed above, the models want to keep the storm door open over the next 16 days. Other than the storm that arrives tonight, nothing looks particularly huge. The pattern to notice is that storms seem consistent in arrival, with more snowy days than non-snowy days. You can’t really extract any detailed snow totals from the GIF below, as it is just one run of the GEFS showing the next 16 days. It does give you the idea that storms will continue.

Looking at the PNA index, we see most of the ensemble members showing a negative PNA index as we head into the next couple of weeks. This is only the second time this season where we have seen that indication of troughing in the Pacific. Hopefully the storms continue to roll in on a regular basis.

Super Tuesday…Yawn

As Andy reported yesterday, most everyone we have heard from was able to reserve parking at Alpine Meadows for all 9 days of the upcoming holiday period. Yes, the system did choke at 12:00:05, and I received a lot of errors in the first few minutes of making reservations. But after making the first four of my reservations, suddenly things did smooth out and I was able to make the last five with minimal fuss. My guess is that someone noticed the issues that have been widely reported and took some steps to prepare for the deluge of requests. Maybe the server was upgraded in some way?

But now I have a different theory, because as of 2:30 this afternoon, free reservations are still available at Alpine Meadows for all of the midweek days and Sunday the 25th. Free reservations are available for all midweek days at Palisades. Maybe the demand for midweek parking was overestimated. Although it is ski and skate week for local schools next week, I am well aware that many of my neighbors use that time to visit warmer climates.

Then there’s the conspiracy theorists amongst us that wonder if maybe Alterra is secretly building some large underground parking garage that will be announced Friday. A simpler explanation is that it is possible that additional capacity was added, say at White Wolf or Truckee High School. Wouldn’t that be a bummer, to reserve a space but then find out that your reserved spot is in Truckee if you arrive after 10am.

Great news…there will be no pausing of the ski day next Tuesday to make reservations. We’ve already made those reservations

See you out there tomorrow, unless you choose to go to the Palisades side. We hear powder days are always better over there.