As The Adage Says…

You don’t know if you don’t go. Honestly, I wasn’t super hopeful about how skiing might be at Alpine Meadows this morning. There was supposed to be a decent dump of snow overnight, but I wasn’t certain it would materialize. The temperatures were headed in the right direction and light snow was falling in the evening. But as I crawled into bed, the temperatures reported at the base of Alpine Meadows were climbing above freezing. In the morning my phone pinged, indicating the mountain ops tweets had arrived reporting just 4 inches of snow overnight. Still, I headed out to Alpine Meadows, expecting high winds and limited operations.

On arrival, the winds were barely blowing and the reports from patrollers indicated more like 7-10 inches at the top of the mountain. The new snow in the parking lot did resemble snow rather than slush. So we booted up and headed out, finding a unique situation. Roundhouse was on a maintenance hold. TLC was also on a delayed start due to power issues, as was Meadow. So here we were on a decent powder day, where Summit was the only lift to open other than Subway. Actually, Scott also opened on time, but getting there required a hike or going via Summit.

As is often the case, Alpine Bowl was pea soup fog, but dropping down to Sunspot, the D Chutes or Wolverine offered excellent visibility and almost no wind. The new snow skied fairly light, not quite covering the moguls below. It was one of those days where it was better to seek out new snow over smooth terrain, and lower angle terrain offered less scratchiness below. Repeat runs were still pretty good relative to recent Sierra Cement dumps.

There definitely were a lot of non-believers that were not motivated by the 4 inch tweet. Perhaps they needed some 🚨emojis. Of course, i am ecstatic that there was not a powder alert this morning. I wish it were that way every day. It was much like a classic mid-week Alpine Meadows powder day. It wasn’t snowing hard enough to create a “free refills” scenario. Those are the days that we dream of! Lines were non existent at the lifts, and it was possible to make several runs through the same zone without things being completely schralped by the time you returned.

This first storm looks like it has a decent possibility of hitting the forecast totals I mentioned two days ago of 20-24 inches. Based on what I skied today, 10 inches is a pretty reasonable guess so far, as a couple of inches fell during the day. One more wave of snow is expected tonight into tomorrow. I feel like the point forecast at NOAA is overdoing it, still relying on older model runs. Here’s three different models through Saturday morning:

Generally the NAM is pretty good at short range modeling. The Canadian is an outlier that could be a little too optimistic. The GFS trend more conservative. In short the NAM says 10-12inches more; the Canadian says 12-20 inches more; the GEFS says 6-9 inches more. Base on what we saw overnight, the NAM seems reasonable. Snow levels should run in the 4-5k level, which is better than recent storms.

Morning Update: The point forecast for Alpine Meadows is still showing 10-14 inches today from snow showers. Put me in the non-believer category. Most of the moisture is trending south on the satellite. Also there is not much forcing past the crest. Reno NOAA suggests just a few inches in the Tahoe area for today.

Friday Afternoon Update: As of 3:15, there is 3 inches of new snow at the base area sensor, and probably closer to 4-5 mid-mountain. Still a fantastic day of skiing if you knew where to look!

Looking At The Next Storm

There’s not really a clearcut answer here. Yes, another system moves in Sunday afteroon-ish and lasts possibly into Tuesday. There is very little model to model consistency, or run to run consistency, with that next storm. Most of the models want to push the bulk of that storm into Southern California. The GFS had had several runs today that want to push it farther northward, but the GFS has been somewhat off the rails this season, after having a pretty good record last year.

Coastal areas of California are taking the brunt of both of these storms, as are coastal mountains. Some of those models are predicting more than 20 inches of rainfall from that storm in SoCal area. That could be disastrous. It makes no sense to show the models graphics yet as they are so inconsistent. Here’s the wording from the NOAA Reno office forecast discussion:

Regarding snow totals, the NBM is indicating a 60 to 80% chance of 18 inches or more, with a 30 to 60% chance of up to 30 inches along the highest peaks. The lingering cold air from the previous system will lead to initially lower snow levels ranging from 3000 to 4000 feet Sunday morning, rising to 4000 to 5000 feet by Sunday afternoon. By Monday, snow levels will be between 4000 and 6000 feet. There is still uncertainty regarding exactly where the snow levels will fall and timing of heaviest precipitation. Stay tuned to the forecast for updates as we know more in the next few days!

Forrest at Reno NOAA

As you can see, there’s a pretty big range of possible solutions and even the pros are not committing just yet. One thing to note is the rising snow levels. Transitioning from low snow levels (lighter snow) to higher snow levels (heavier snow) results in an unstable snowpack with increased avalanche danger. Looking at this in simple terms, the higher forecast totals would be the result of the jet stream moving farther north, which would increase the snow levels due to the addition of subtropical moisture. So…be careful what you wish for.

Friday afternoon update: The timing has moved up on this thing, now starting late Saturday night into Tuesday. Snowfall amounts are also now at about 3 feet, which is the reset we need.

One thing that is certain is that it is going to be a very busy weekend in Tahoe, and not just at the ski resorts. A friend from Mammoth reports that they are looking at 85% occupancy for hotels and rentals this weekend, the busiest yet. I am extremely grateful to have days like today where the mountain felt more empty than packed to the gills.