Rollercoaster!!!

I used to really love rollercoasters. My personal best was 19 rides in a row one evening on the Giant Dipper at the Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk. They were closing and made us get off before we could do ride #20. But as time has gone on, I’m  less tolerant of rollercoasters. That would include the roller coaster of weather that we have had over the last few weeks since everyone agreed that it was finally autumn. That rollercoaster looks like it may continue longer than we like.

The Weather Rollercoaster

According to the powers that be at Palisades Tahoe and Alpine Meadows, opening day is scheduled for November 22nd, one month away. But anyone who’s been around the block knows about those dreaded words “weather and conditions permitting”. Frankly, I’m getting a bit worried about that phrase. Ten days ago, Andy and I were both anxious to post the first pictures of snow all of the way to the base of Alpine Meadows. Those sort of photos always bring on the hope for the start of the season. Alas, Mother Nature has some different ideas. I’ve been bike riding all week in shorts and a tee shirt. Last week, I even went hiking in Mammoth at 9,000 feet in shorts and a tee shirt, and that was too warm.

So it’s too warm for natural snow to fall, and there’s only small amounts of precipitation in the forecast. Will the snowmakers at Alpine Meadows save us? Not yet, as it’s far too warm. If you get most of your weather info from the 6 o’clock news, you might actually think that it’s been cold enough to start making snow. Friday night it was 33° at my house in Truckee, and those are the numbers you will hear about on the 6 o’clock news. That’s because cold air sinks, leaving the warmer air at higher elevations. Night time temperatures at Alpine Meadows have been ranging in the upper 40’s to low 50’s and yes, that is far too warm for snowmaking. We need some storms to mix out those inversions!

While it is possible to make snow at temperatures just above freezing, it’s not very productive. The magic number you will hear from snowmakers is 28°. That’s where the real productivity happens. We are not there yet. We might actually get there by next weekend, and hopefully that will be the end of the warm days.

The problem is the diurnal temperature range is still too great. Snowmaking is expensive in terms of both utilities and staffing. No mountain manager wants to drop a bunch of money into making snow that is just just going to melt the next day or next week. We are looking for that consistent cold air, that kind that came in like a banshee last October. I’ll keep looking for signs of that change.

We haven’t started showing any model runs yet this season, so let the model riding begin. Here’s the Saturday afternoon run of the GEFS ensemble run for total snowfall over the next 16 days. One to three inches will not get us very far.

Looking at the climate center predictions for the next 8 to 14 days, neither the temperature or precipitation outlooks offer a lot of hope for skiing just yet. It is what it is. We could see a complete flip in these models by this time next week.

 

At any rate, the bike riding is still fun. I set a goal for myself this summer of 100 miles a week, and I am getting there, or very close, most weeks when I am not traveling. We have the bonus right now of absolutely insane fall colors to enjoy, and minimal issues with frost, puddles or crowded trails. So the bike riding will continue and that theoretically means fewer knee issues or sore legs when ski season does finally roll around.

The Rollercoaster of Emotions

My head is still all bent out of shape regarding the plan for reserved parking on weekends during the core of  the upcoming ski season. When plans finally were announced back in September, the article I posted attempted to show my happy face. I think I was too easily swayed by finding out that, theoretically, reservations would be free, rather than the paid reservations we endured during the summer ski season. But since posting that initial piece, my outlook is no longer so rosy. It’s been another rollercoaster.

A number of my friends have doubled down on their doubts about skiing at all on weekends or holidays. That extended family that is usually planning for bringing the kids for a holiday ski vacation…not a peep out of them yet, and I get it. I have yet to learn enough coding to write a bot to sign me up for parking each Tuesday. Nobody has yet contacted me and said “You’re an unofficial employee of the mountain, and we will therefore exempt you from reservations.” I’m also still waiting for the announcement that the Mountaineer service will expand to Truckee for this winter. Honestly, it’s been all downhill since I wrote that piece on September 27th, which does not make for much of a rollercoaster.

The more I have thought about it, having mandatory parking reservations for the upcoming season will have little or no impact at all on traffic or the need to arrive early at the ski resort. Sure, they may be a few more people that start utilizing the Mountaineer if they live (or are staying) within Alpine Meadows or Olympic Valley. But those cars weren’t really contributing to the traffic on Highway 89, were they? The parking lots will still fill up, and the rush will still be on to avoid the remote parking areas at Deer Park or out near the stables in OV.

Without any large scale viable public transportation option in North Tahoe as an available alternative, there really isn’t any way you can reasonably expect that parking reservations will make a difference. It’s going to be years before we see any sort of public transportation in place that can make a dent in traffic.

We’re getting to the end of October, and that is the time where information was promised about the option of guaranteed paid parking reservations. I’ve talked to people out there that are standing by with their Platinum Visa cards just waiting to grab every day they can. There are plenty of people out there that seem to have no issue with increased costs for everything. That doesn’t include us retired public school teachers, like myself, or retired ski area employees, like many of my friends. I’m officially worried.

In my last post on the subject (and at other times), I have suggested that the one thing that Palisades Tahoe and Alpine Meadows can do to impact traffic and parking issues is to scale back marketing efforts. Instead, it seems like they are doubling down.

Palisades Tahoe

 

Also Palisades Tahoe

No, those posts give absolutely no indication that anybody at the marketing department is concerned about the impact that PTAM has on the local communities, traffic on the highway for everyone, and skiers and riders like me and you that just want to go skiing.

I’ll give them the World Cup event in February, as that is a big deal, and at least it involves skiing. But if I have to read one more post on social media about Shaq DJ-ing at Tahoe Live in December, I may just puke. I just want to go skiing. I don’t want my ski area to be a 24/7/365 all inclusive entertainment venue. Yeah, Tahoe Live is coming to Palisades in December, and presumably it will be using a huge part of very limited parking availability. That’s just great. Bust out your credit cards folks and be ready to reserve parking  if you actually wanted to ski that weekend.

The wait for winter like conditions will continue until the weather rollercoaster closes for the season. Until then, it’s bike rides and ski movies…