If you had a fear of missing out today (FOMO) then fear no more. Yes, there was some new snow today. Yes, it improved the groomed runs. Yes, it started off pretty soggy and got soggier until we quit a little before noon. No, the skiing was not spectacular, epic or iconic. Tomorrow should be better for those of us that can ski any day we like.
Somewhere around an inch or two of snow had fallen when lifts spun this morning, and it continued to build very slowly, up to about three inches of snow snow before it got so wet that the accumulation seemed to stop. That new soft coating on low angle groomed slopes was pretty delightful, compared to the marbles and golf balls of the last few days. Off piste and higher angle terrain was not so great, where every turn was very scratchy and the bumps and ruts left from yesterday were not covered. Then there was the visibility issue, as this was the kind of snow that stuck to everything, including your googles.
Patrol still kept firm limits on where you could go in these firm conditions. Anything steep was off limits, as it wasn’t likely that 1.5 inches of new snow could keep you from taking a slide for life. That meant that even though there were fewer cars in the parking lot that Friday, the terrain that was open was a bit busier than I like.
This wetter layer is a good thing, as it generally provides a better bond with the icy surface below. If you believe the weather models, they all want to drop snow levels sometime tonight. The point forecast suggests that 7 to 10 inches of snow could fall today. I think that is unlikely given the current mountain temps nearing 35° at the base area. But up top, that will probably happen.
Since I covered the weather last, there was a flip flop in the forecast. On Friday the thought was that today’s storm would be nothing, and we would see a stronger wave for Tuesday. That thinking is now reversed. The greater snowfall looks to be today and tonight, while Tuesday does look like not much. The Short Range Ensemble Forecast shows the potential for about a foot of snow by the time lifts roll tomorrow. One thing to note from the image below is how narrow that band of snow is, which in this case is a sign that snow is only expected at the higher levels of the Sierra.
The PNA Index does want to stay on the negative side through the end of the month. That indicates a Pacific trough will be in place for the long term. That leaves the storm door open. That said, there is no indication that any of these storms will be an AR event that may bring huge snowfall totals. Looking at the ensembles over the last dozen runs, there were zero runs that suggested more than 3 feet of total snowfall over the next 16 days.
We’re not done with winter just yet. My friend Larry (the semi-famous one) reminded us yesterday that in 1982, it snowed 170 inches at Alpine Meadows starting on March 27. Here’s to hoping we don’t get to see that happen again.
“Here’s to hoping we don’t get to see that happen again.” Let’s not contribute to the local’s curmudgeonly malaise. There’s no such thing as too much of a good thing. Too much of anything is just enough!