As predicted, it was a windy and wild day at Alpine Meadows. Lakeview, Scott and ABC began the day on windhold. Summit did run until 11:30, in what I believe are the windiest conditions I have ever noted. I rode mostly on Roundhouse and it was one of those days where you wanted the bar down, as the strong winds would grab your skis and want to lever you off the chair.
For the most part, it was a groomer sort of day. I made some quick forays into Chicken Leg, Hot Yellow and Roll & Knolls, only to dodge right back onto the groomed terrain. Some groomers were wind scoured, while others were wind filled. Werner’s and Rock Garden were nicely wind buffed for each run. As the morning wore on, Summit, Yellow and Kangaroo also joined the windhold list and the line at Roundhouse got bigger, while the temperature got lower. Snow fell briefly during the morning, with no meaningful accumulation just yet.
As I am writing this, all lifts just went on lightning hold, which is not surprising given the very volatile atmospheric changes today.
None of this matters as snow is in the forecast for the next 4 days, and that will change everything. How much snow will fall has been a huge matter of discussion over the last couple of days. So before we get into the details of what will happen, let’s talk about why there has been so much variability in the forecast numbers you might have heard.
The track for this system is unusual. Typically, winter systems come out of the Gulf of Alaska and take a path over the Pacific Ocean, which allows them to pick up moisture. This system is riding over a ridge in the ocean and coming directly from the north, partly over land, and partly over water. That is the reason we are going to see extra cold air and low snow levels with this system. Exactly how much of that is over land versus how much is over water has everything to do with how much moisture it will bring. It doesn’t take much movement of the storm track to bring a much wetter, or drier, result. That’s why we have seen so much variability model run to model run.
Also working against us is that there are two different NOAA offices that issue weather forecasts in the Sierra Nevada region. The Sacramento office handles everything to the west of the crest of the Sierra. The Reno office handles everything east of the crest. Typically, the west slope of the Sierra does get much more snow than the eastern side of the Sierra. Truckee, Lake Tahoe and Alpine Meadows happen to be in the Reno (Western Nevada) region, so they may offer less severe advisories than the Sacramento office.
As of this afternoon, the Sacramento office has issued a Winter Storm Warning for 1 to 3 feet of snow through Friday, while the Reno office has only issued a Winter Weather Advisory and a Special Weather Statement calling for much less snow. Which should you believe? For Alpine Meadows and Palisades, you’re probably going to get a more accurate picture by looking at the forecast from Sacramento for the western slopes. Note that just about all of the major ski areas in Tahoe are just on the lee side of the crest, where the big snows actually accumulate. The reality is, it would probably be more accurate to divide the two forecast regions at Highway 89 rather than the crest of the Sierra.
So what does the forecast look like as of today? Here’s a simplification of the point forecast for Alpine Meadows, which is at about the mid-mountain level. I’, combining the day and night totals just to keep this piece a bit shorter:
- Tuesday: Â 4 to 7 inches Actually Fell 1 inch
- Wednesday: 8 to 14 inches
- Thursday: Â 5 to 11 inches
- Friday: 3 to 7 inches
So in total, somewhere around 2-3 feet of new snow expected over the week. Today should be the windiest day, but the winds will be likely to affect some lift operations at times throughout the week. Snow levels are also projected to drop sooner than expected, ranging between 1000-2000 feet all week. That is going to make for some very long trips for those traveling over the Sierra this week.
As of now there is a pretty good break in systems over the weekend. Skiing conditions should be cold but great. Traffic and crowds could be a real problem with a combination of school breaks, the World Cup and powder fever. Looking at the midrange, a very similar system moves in for next week, as early as Sunday evening. Let’s get through this one first.
When the ” snow” finally arrived late afternoon it looked more like tiny styrofoam balls/BB pellets. No matter,when enough of it had fallen to improve the conditions they shut everything down. Going down access road afterwards traffic was crawling because super slick due to surfactants,not ” Mother Nature”