Let’s Get Real…

One of the things I try to do here at Unofficial Alpine is to make sure that we’re giving you a realistic idea of what’s going on at Alpine Meadows. In today’s report, let’s get real about current ski conditions, whether or not there is a “pattern change” that will bring back the storms, and a discussion on whether or not public transportation is the answer to traffic problems that plague the Tahoe region.

Let’s talk ski conditions first. It’s been a week since we last saw new snow in Tahoe. Since then, the good news is that it has stayed mostly cold. The problem is that it only takes one warmish day to do a number on snow conditions. We’ve also had several east wind events, and doesn’t always make for great ski conditions. We’ve been fortunate that the grooming team has ramped back up to the point where slopes that are normally groomed are getting done and some of the less frequently groomed slopes are starting to make it into the mix.

Groomers: Anything that is getting groomed had generally been skiing well. Off of Summit and Roundhouse, most of the groomed snow is pretty winter like. Off of Sherwood, Scott and Lakeview, the snow has started that turn toward a corny consistency. Yesterday, there was a lot of clumpy and pasty texture as things warmed. Today those same groomers were firm in the morning. By the weekend we could see some almost corn snow conditions on sunny groomed slopes. Hopefully we can see even more expansion of groomed runs: Standard? Solar Flare? Sherwood Face?

North Facing Terrain: It’s still winter like snow on the north facing terrain, especially lower on the mountain. It ranges from soft to chalky snow. You can find this from Deer Camp to Arts Knob, Rolls and Knolls and just about everywhere off of Yellow chair. Also we have mentioned the Gentian Gully zone several times this week, just stay in the shady areas. Moguls continue to grow daily, especially in higher traffic lines.

South Facing Terrain: It got warm, then cold so much of that terrain is not so good right now. It has not been getting quite warm enough for off piste areas to soften to the pleasant stage. It has not been all that pleasant. This might include Sherwood Face, South Face, Standard Run and other ungroomed zones off of Scott Chair.

Wind Affected Terrain: Pretty much all of the terrain near the top of the mountain has been severely wind affected. The snow is either firmly packed or wind sculpted sastrugi, or both. This includes all of the upper bowls and High Traverse ridges. Much of Alpine Bowl is pretty poor where it is not groomed.

Overall skiing is good but not great this week. Maybe a storm will clean things up…maybe not.

Flippity Flop Go The Weather Models

The weather models are maddeningly inconclusive about whether or not we will really see a pattern change. Once again below, I present the “model trend GIF” of the total snowfall over the next 16 days. Each successive frame shows each successive model run of the GFS over the last two days. One run looks like “OMG!” The next run looks like “#%$^”.

Why is that happening? The “pattern change” talked about by some forecasters seems to be more of a slight pattern adjustment. The ridge does not recede enough for a trough off the Pacific coast, it just pulls back enough to give us two things: a strong north or northeast wind and a chance of inside sliders systems. Inside slider systems travel directly from the north, so they have little opportunity to pickup moisture from the Pacific Ocean. The good news is that the snow we get from those systems is generally light and dry. It’s very difficult to predict how much snow they may bring.

That’s actually just about what we have had this week, it may just get slightly snowier on Sunday. In weather forecasting, persistence is the norm. Unless you can identify an outside force that might change a forecast, it’s more likely to stay the same. So I am going with persistence into next week.

Let’s Get Real About Public Transportation

On Sunday, I published a post suggesting that Alterra needs a third mountain in California. It’s the hottest post on UA since 2016 or so. So far there have been over 6000 views, and about 100 comments made between here and Facebook. Many of those posts suggest that we can solve the traffic problems of Lake Tahoe if people would just adopt public transportation. I don’t think it’s that simple, so the other day, I did some math. Then I showed my math to a few friends and made some adjustments. I don’t think more public transportation is a solution to traffic woes in North Tahoe. Follow along:

• On a busy weekend or holiday day, there’s about 18,000 visitors at Palisades and Alpine together when parking lots are full. Let’s say we set a target of reducing traffic by one third, which means we’re trying to get 6000 people into the two ski areas by bus. Any less of a target may not even be noticeable. (Also putting more people on busses means that even more people might fill the slopes!)

• A good sized city bus has a capacity for about 60 riders. But given that ski area guests have skis, snowboards, backpacks, boot bags, coolers, strollers etc, somewhere around 40 people will fit in the bus on a given run. So if you want to move 6000 people, you need about 150 bus runs.

• To keep things simple, we don’t really know how many busses may come from west shore, north shore or Truckee. Lets assume that 75 buses need to arrive at Palisades and 75 arrive at Alpine Meadows. If you have an arrival window of 7am until 10 am, that gives three hours for 75 bus arrivals, or 25 per hour. That means a bus has to arrive every 2.4 minutes to handle the load and make a dent in traffic. They need to do that while the other 2/3 of the vehicles are still on the roads.  Because each trip takes about an hour round trip (to Truckee), you essentially need 25 buses to make it happen. The same thing must happen in reverse from 2pm until 5 pm.

Are you getting the picture here? Not even thinking about the impossibilities of parking those cars remotely, or the bottlenecks of West River Street and the Mousehole…you can’t really solve this traffic issue with bus ridership.

Others have suggested that a gondola be built to bring riders from Truckee and the West Shore. The Base To Base Gondola now has an estimated cost of 65-100 million dollars for a 2.4 mile stretch. The minimum run from Truckee would be about 10 miles, say from the Coldstream ponds area to Palisades. What would that cost be? Who should pay for that? It would likely be an hour ride each way!

Also…this is not just a Palisades/Alpine Meadows problem. The traffic issues to Northstar are just as bad, if not worse. Traffic backs up to the freeway routinely, even mid-week. Do we build another gondola there too? Maybe a monorail system could make a loop between Truckee and various ski resorts. It makes sense, as Alterra is proposing to build a Disneyesque resort in Olympic Valley. It’s just that it would take about 25 years for that to be build.

No…we need to draw visitors away from the Truckee-North Tahoe area. I’ll stand by my original statement that Alterra needs a third resort in Northern California (outside of the Tahoe market). Nobody has changed my mind yet!