Yikes!

It was really busy again today at Alpine Meadows. As in all of the parking lots were full by 11:15 or so, at both Alpine and Palisades. We had bailed at that point and noted that there was still an insane amount of ski traffic inbound on Highway 89. At least today, most of the lifts were open at Alpine within the first hour and many people arrived later than the opening bell. The first hour and a half of the day was not incredibly busy…after that, the quality of skiing was not worth the amount of time spent in line.

I know, it’s holiday weekend and we should be mentally prepared for that, and I was. I’ve said time and again that Alpine Meadows works even with all of the parking lots full, as long as the full mountain is open. That was not the case today. ABC is down for the count for who knows how long…Roundhouse was down for a second day and then Yellow went onto a maintenance hold. All three of those chairs are critical when it comes to avoiding holiday crowds. (Roundhouse eventually opened at 2:20) Things weren’t all that much better over at Palisades. Here’s the morning tweet regarding lift status:

Anyone that reads that might just choose to go to Alpine Meadows for the day rather than Palisades. Ultimately some of the 7 delayed lifts did open at some point, but by that time people had already settled in for the day. I know, big storm cycle and all, but this is the “third largest resort” that wants to be a “world class resort”. What worries me is there are several more of these big storms headed our way and I am hoping that huge crowds and limited operations do not become our new normal.

How was the skiing today? It depends a lot of who you asked. While a number of people tried to convince me that there was great powder stashes to be found, I did not necessarily find that to be the case. I’ve seen some very trusted local ski celebrities post today to the effect that although we got a lot of new snow, it’s more of a base builder and not great for skiing. I experimented in a few locations today and found that if you could find untracked snow with a supportable base, you could make nice powder turns. When I found those places, I would get four good turns, then have my tips dive into the depths of Sierra cement below the lighter topcoat.

Ultimately, most of the crowd that was out there today needed a nice groomer to ski down, and there just wasn’t enough of that. In particular, from Summit, it was just Alpine Bowl and Wolverine. Consequently those runs were exceptionally busy. So apparently we’re still short on grooming staff. That also put a lot of people on Weasel and Sherwood Run, not having easy access to Dance Floor, Werners or Charity. Not ideal, but hey we can go sightseeing on the shiny boxes!

Now that we’re back to a “holiday for some” week, we’ll have to wait and see what crowds look like for the rest of the week.

The Weather Models: “Guano” Crazy

Don’t be fooled by this little system that will drop some snow over night. Somewhere around 3 to 5 inches of new snow is expected overnight. With these cold temperatures, it should be nice and light compared to the last storm. That should make for some nice conditions for tomorrow, especially in areas where there is a supportable base and not just mush. It’s the following storms that you might worry about.

The first of three possible AR events rolls in on Wednesday that will likely have widespread effects in Northern California. The first one looks to possibly bring 3-5 feet of snow and probably too much wind. Forecasters have applied the term “bomb cyclone” to this one. Hurricane force winds are expected offshore. For all practical purposes it is a hurricane like system. Damaging winds are expected, and with saturated soils from the last system, that means falling trees, falling power lines, etc. That one wraps up by Friday or Saturday.

It’s the one after that that could be more problematic. This mornings model runs of the GFS and the GEFS were showing the potential of 20 inches of rain in the Northern Sierra. Using standard thinking, that could equate to 20 feet of snow above the freezing level. I know the sayings “All snow is good” and “We need the water”, but that amount would be catastrophic. We’re still a week out on that system, so hopefully a more rational forecast will shape up as we get closer. Reading the tweets of various forecasting agencies and weather bloggers today…they are a bit spooked by the possibilities. I’m just going to say that to a certain degree, the models have been pretty good at identifying these systems lately. Daniel Swain at WeatherWest.com is working up a new blog post sometime this evening covering the flood potential from upcoming systems.

Fingers are crossed that does NOT happen…