Models, Maps & A Bit Of Skiing

The ski season has started in Tahoe. I haven’t skied just yet, but lifts spun last weekend at Mount Rose, Boreal, Donner Ski Ranch, Dodge Ridge, Northstar, Heavenly and Kirkwood. Truth be told, I heard the TLC lift at Alpine is spinning for race teams this week. You can see that on the webcam today, There’s a day where I might have felt bad about that – but teams are a big deal and racers getting out for training before the general public gets a chance doesn’t bother me. If I am skiing anytime before Thanksgiving, I am feeling pretty good about my season. I’m currently planning on Mammoth over the next couple of days, where there is far more terrain available than anywhere in Tahoe. It’s pretty much the only other place where I use my Ikon pass. Otherwise, I look forward to the opening of Alpine Meadows next Tuesday.

Reports from just about every area that opened over the weekend were that crowds were intensive. Cheap passes and hype will do that. I’m not sorry I missed it. I biked over the Golden Gate bridge for the first time and enjoyed one more fantastic fall weekend in San Francisco instead. Ski season can start now.

Is It Going To Snow Next Week? The Models Say…

I spent a lot of time over the last 12 hours pondering the models and looking for the change that will bring us back to a snowier pattern. Nothing is really lining up. The models are having a tough time predicting what will happen, as there is a record setting high sitting over Alaska and another high pressure ridge out in the Pacific Ocean. It takes something drastic to change that pattern. That something looks like it could be an atmospheric river event. Rather than pick any particular model run, I’m going to share the morning long term forecasts from NOAA. Here’s the 6-10 day outlook:

It does show that we go into a wetter pattern with some cold air in place. We already have the cold air in place, so some weaker systems will tap into that sometime around the 21st or 22nd and bring us more snow. But as we get deeper into the Thanksgiving week, the forecast will get both warmer and wetter – which is the classic AR pattern with moisture arriving from a southern flow. Here’s the 8-14 day outlook:

It’s way too early to say how that will pan out. Everything depends on whether Tahoe ends up on the north side of the jet stream or the south side of the jet stream. One brings us a lot of snow, the other brings us a lot of rain. Both are good for a parched California. Only one is good for ski areas. We’ll have to see how this develops…if it develops.

Right now, I would emphasize that the last storm event was big but not huge. Much of the terrain that opens next Tuesday will rely mostly on what the snow making team can create. That means that terrain will be limited and off piste skiing somewhat hazardous. It’s still very early in the season. I’ll be grateful just to be skiing at my home mountain.

There’s A New Map

I saw a quick marketing announcement the other day, noting that a new unified map of Alpine and Palisades has been released. Ugh, they just can’t give up on that theme of we’re one big place. Currently the map only appears in the Palisades Tahoe app. In the history of ski maps there have been some stinkers, even for our home mountain. What makes them bad? The inability to tell what the mountain really looks like and how to get from one place to another.

Here’s the new map, as it appears on the PT app. (In all honesty it took three screen shots to capture the whole map and I then did some limited  Photoshopping to stitch things back together):

The first thing I notice is that it essentially skips the fact that Alpine and Palisades are still separated by White Wolf, which is terrain that is not currently available to the public. The truth is, there’s about a mile of terrain in there that has been hidden from view. Texas Ted is sure to be confused when Junior really has to go pee and the Alpine lodge still looks so far away.

The second thing to notice is that the scale is all off. Alpine Meadows looks huge on the map, relative to Olympic Valley…and that’s just the front side of Alpine. The truth is, Palisades is much larger than Alpine. That weird scaling makes it almost impossible to really see any detail about much of anything, but especially at Palisades. Kalamazoo Karen is going to get lost and confused trying to meet her kids at Shirley Express.

The backside views are almost non-existent. If new visitors don’t find Sherwood, Lakeview or High Traverse, that’s actually a positive point in my book.

The old version of the maps are still available on the Palisades Tahoe website, at least as of today. You might want to archive those while you can. I’ve said it before and I will say it again. There is way more marketing capital in the phrase “Your Ikon pass gives you access to two different mountains, offering two different Tahoe experiences.” That is way more powerful than “Your Ikon pass give you access to the third largest ski area…” It’s clear that someone is trying to justify a huge investment in the B2B Gondola.

Ski with care if you’re joining the crowds at Palisades this weekend!