Crazy Day

It’s another two part report today, with Andy covering ski conditions at the top, and Mark covering upcoming weather toward the end…

Yesterday was my birthday. I would like to thank all my good friends who wished me a Happy Birthday and to those who invited me to their homes for great food and drink in celebration of my special day. I would especially like to thank my Periodontist, Dentist, Optometrist, and the Tahoe Forest Multi Specialty Clinics for there cards and emails offering me Best Wishes for a great day on my Birthday.

What a crazy day it was today. I woke up early, which it turns out was an hour later this morning than it was yesterday. A quick look at the mountain conditions on the NOAA website, as well as the ski area website, told me to turn over and go back to sleep. The winds were excessive in the early morning and most lifts at Alpine Meadows were either on Wind Hold or showed Anticipated Weather Delays. An inch of snow was reported overnight. I turned over and went back to sleep. A friend called to let me know he was heading to slopes before nine only to call back and say it was terrible at the resort and that he was going back home.

As the morning progressed the winds died down and lifts opened. I had not planned on going to the ski area today, but when Mark told me he was heading up around noon I decided to join him. Both of us were shocked to see the parking lot almost full when we drove in at one o’clock or so this afternoon. I have not parked as far down the Subway Parking Lot as I did today in a long time.

We stayed longer than I thought we would given the amount of new snow which was minimal. However it was a little more than we expected. Partly cloudy skies and diminished winds greeted us which added to our ability to stay longer than we planned. We found soft new snow where the runs had been groomed coming down from Roundhouse. I enjoyed fairly soft turns in Sherwood Forest, and additional spring turns lower down the main Sherwood run.

A disturbing view noted from the Sherwood Chair, and something I would not have ventured into for a million dollars, was Sherwood Face where fresh snow had blown into the troughs of moguls whose bodies stood tall frozen in place. Just to the side of Reily’s Run I was able to make some fresh tracks in a thin layer of new snow. Bobby’s, off Scott Chair, varied from smooth ice to skier pushed and piled soft snow. Ridge Run, and lower down, Tiegel had a strange surface that was made up of irregular bumps created as skiers packed snow in an unusual manner. I felt like I needed to visit a chiropractor after completing each of these trails. Scott Meadow was a mixture of untouched snow and glare ice (find patches of new snow and you had a good run). We took one run late in the afternoon up Summit where I thought Sunspot was pleasant enough, but off-piste was again a mixture of windblown powder and ice.
Tomorrow is another day.

Will We Get A Real Storm Anytime Soon?

This is the part by Mark. First off, I will admit to under forecasting the last two systems. I said both systems would bring a lot of wind and not much snow. Both systems over-performed, each bringing a whole inch of snow. Many people have been asking me what I thought about the upcoming systems on Tuesday and Saturday, as the TV guys keep mentioning them as good news for skiers. Maybe that’s why so many people showed up today?

The Tuesday system looks really good when you take a quick look at the models. They have been pretty consistent in calling for 1-2 inches of moisture for the system through Tuesday night. Normally, that would bring us 1 to 2 feet of snow. But looking at the dynamics of the system that probably won’t happen. Yes, it is an AR event, and we have not really had one for a while. The answer is we still won’t really have one. The atmospheric river is likely to stay to our north, affecting mostly Oregon and extreme northern California. We’re going to be at the very lowest part of the sag. That keeps us in the warmer air, and means that forcing past the crest will likely be weak. The end result is that only 2-4 inches of snow is likely out of that system in Tahoe, and snow levels will be very near base levels or higher.

We get back into springlike conditions from Wednesday through Friday, and hopefully we can get back into the corn cycle quickly, as otherwise it will be warm enough to get sticky.

Saturday’s system has been pretty flippy floppy for several days worth of models runs. Some model runs yesterday showed the potential for a true AR event with 4-5 feet of snow. We saw that possibility a couple of weeks ago, and then the storm split and went south off the coast. Bryan Allegreto at Open Snow mentioned that possibility in his morning forecast, and the forecast trends are now verifying that today, showing the storm splitting with most of the energy going south. It could flip back, but that has been the trend for 6 model runs in a row. It bears watching.

Once we get past that system….there’s pretty good agreement on a serious ridge building in with warm temperatures for the following week. The PNA Index has been slightly negative for a couple of weeks and most of the ensemble members take it back to the positive side by next week. That’s not good if you’re waiting for snow.

Don’t wait for snow. Go skiing and riding…