In any other October, we would be jumping for joy to see a giant atmospheric river event headed for California. I can’t imagine you have not heard of this one yet, as every news media outlet in the state has covered it with breathless statements of “storm of the century” and dire warnings of the potential for damage Sunday through Tuesday. It’s easy to see why everyone is so excited. The last two Octobers have been bone dry.
Here’s the latest models to give you an idea of what this is looking like. This is the model ensemble for total precipitation through next Tuesday. Those shades of tan to brown are indicating the potential for 6-8 inches of precipitation in the northern Sierra.
Here’s the atmospheric geopotential height anomaly for Monday. In layman’s terms, this is a reasonable representation of atmospheric pressures. Low pressure brings stormy conditions, and it’s indicated in blues, with dark blue representing abnormally low pressures. Seeing a model like this in January or February would not be extraordinary, but in October, it’s a rarity. The Reno NOAA forecast discussion basically said this morning that there has not been an October storm this large since before detailed analyses became available in 1979.
The take away from that graphic is that this storm will pack a punch, with very high winds forecast from Sunday afternoon into Monday evening. Most of this storm will be very warm, which is the downside to being right in the target zone of that AR. Snow levels should run from 8-10K feet until the front passes. Snow levels drop to resort levels on Monday and to lake level by Tuesday. NOAA says there will be plenty of moisture left to leave a good spackling of Sierra cement, which is exactly the type of snow we want at this time of the year, hopefully to followed by some cold temperatures to set up that base.
As skiers and riders, we are trained to cheer on these early storms, hoping for an earlier than expected opening date. If you’re thinking of going to Mammoth, they just announced a new opening date of October 29th, or two weeks earlier than expected. With the main lodge of Mammoth sitting at 9000 feet, they will get mostly snow out of this storm, and opening to the top is pretty much a certainty.
We’ve been noting our concerns for Alpine Meadows, due to the extremely large construction project going on. We’re not talking about the silly gondola project. It’s the reshaping of the base area that has a long ways to go. Fortunately, things are much less chaotic since we posted our last shots. Everyday I spend some time staring at the webcam, and the worker ants are busily moving things along. That said, I also heard that there is still a pit of despair in the breezeway, with no sign of forms or rebar for the new steps yet. Yikes. Best of luck to the construction crews and Alpine Meadows staff at pulling this off!
The opening of our favorite ski area is a fairly minor concern. Those living in the area of the Dixie and Caldor fires must be alarmed as this storm approaches. Although rehab work has been ongoing in both of those areas, there are major concerns for Highway 70, Highway 89 and Highway 50 due to the potential for debris flows. Beside the highways, there’s a likelihood that debris flows could fill storm channels leading to localized flooding in many areas.
On the plus side, fire officials will likely be comfortable calling fire season done in the northern two-thirds of the state. That will settle nerves for many. We can be a little more comfortable in putting away our go bags and moving the air purifier to storage for the winter.
Football fans in the Bay Area are in for a treat on Sunday. The 49ers are scheduled to play the Colts in a home game Sunday evening. Watching from the stadium may not be so comfortable with the rain and wind forecast. It could be entertaining watching on TV, as Levi’s Stadium has a natural grass playing field. I’m sure I will see the highlights reel.
Myself, we have tickets Sunday evening to the first music show I have seen in almost two years. The Good Luck Thrift Store Outfit has not played a show together in nearly 4 years, as key players moved in their own directions. The last attempted reunion show was in May of 2020, and yes, that was cancelled due to COVID. This Sunday’s show, in their hometown of Oakdale, is at an outdoor venue that looks pretty well covered, but it remains to be seen if we’re going to get “good luck” or not. Hopefully this is a sign that we’ll see more storms this winter than last winter.
The image of the base area is slightly more encouraging than what I could see when I visited Alpine a couple days ago. Since the retaining walls are covered with plastic, I would assume that those walls have been poured, and to see plastic covered backfill is a start. But still, the retaining wall stops at the middle of the outlet of the breezeway, and the steps have yet to be started. If the predicted storm drops feet of snow up there, it’s going to be quite a struggle for the contractors. There goes any possibility of a rare October start for Alpine.
Love your factual real posts! Read them all😀
Many thanks!
I see that snow gun in the back ground, almost go time. That was a long Summer….
And D Man says “I have an Alpine meadows ski patrol / patrol dogs in back sweatshirt in great condition, size medium, that needs to be moved forward. My kids are too big, so am I. If I brought it up to Alpine and handed it to you, could you find a good home for it? I try and recycle stuff as much as possible.”
If you’re interested, comment here an I can connect you with D Man.
Thanks for the tip about thrift store. I’ll check it out, & will buy you a beer if I see you there.