A Welcome Surprise

All signs pointed to resort pandemonium this weekend. But it did not materialize today. That’s not to say that Truckee and the North Lake Tahoe area are not busy, people just didn’t go skiing at Alpine Meadows today. When we left in the mid-afternoon, Lot 4 was barely in use, looking much like it did on Friday. The only lift that had a significant line today was Summit, and we managed to squeeze in quite a few laps there before it got busy.

As predicted, things are looking quite spring like this weekend. As seasoned Alpine Meadows skiers and riders know, it can either be really good or really bad. Knowing where to go is the key. The groomers are generally your best bet first thing in the morning.

That said, not all groomed terrain is created equally. Most of the groomed runs are done after closing. Only some of that terrain gets tilled and regroomed by a later shift. Today those tilled runs were super soft and fun for a few runs, while areas that were not tilled were still rock hard at noon. In areas with higher traffic, that nice corduroy quickly gets churned back into a mix of marbles and sugary snow.

Those slopes that get a lot of south or southeast sun have transitioned to a nice corny consistency. We found some excellent corn today in Sunspot, Weasel 1, Robin Hood, Ridge and Bobby’s. I imagine it was also good in Lower Idiots, but we were done with the longer Summit line.

We’ve got one more day of spring like weather ahead for Sunday. Then on Monday and Tuesday, expect that skiing and riding may not be all that great. I haven’t missed a day of the season yet, but I am not looking forward to those days to continue my streak. Here’s the point forecast for Alpine Meadows:

I would not expect much of anything to soften on Monday or Tuesday. We will be solely at the mercy of the grooming crew, and they have been exceptional this year. We can’t emphasize that enough. Wednesday, we see some warmth returning.

Just about all of the weather bloggers have been looking for pattern change around the last week of the month. Looking at the atmospheric pressure GIF below, remember that red is bad and blue is good. Over the next 10 days you see the ridge replaced by a low in Southern California, which will cause the wind event, then a weak low that slides in over land later in the week before a stronger low sets up in the Pacific over the next 10 days.

You can see that pretty much all of the models are seeing this trend by looking at the current PNA index forecast. A low PNA index correlates with a trough in the Northern Pacific ocean. The PNA Index forecast looks the best it has all season.

The 8-14 day forecast is still calling for a decent probability of both below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. While this may not be a long term change in that pattern that ushers in “normal winter”, it will serve to refresh the mountain. We saw a similar thing happen right after the mountain closed last March. There’s no telling yet if we see that much new snow!

I am not betting on a complete turnaround for the winter season. While this pattern change looks promising in the short term, there is no guarantee that it will last long. There’s also not much in the way of atmospheric modeling or teleconnections that would indicate that kind of change. Mark Finan on KCRA addressed this last night, but I couldn’t capture his graphic. Of the seven years that were this far behind normal in January (since 1929), only one of those saw a recovery to above normal precipitation. That would be 1990-1991, the season of the “March Miracle”. I’m not betting on a miracle.

What ever happens with the ski season, I will adjust. It’s never too early to be concerned about the upcoming fire season…