Here They Come!

In a surprise move, Governor Newsom lifted the “stay at home” order for the Greater Sacramento region yesterday. That region includes Lake Tahoe. This was a complete surprise to just about everyone, because as of yesterday, ICU capacity was still only at 9.4% in the area. State officials stated they are confident that based on the numbers of current cases, fewer people will be headed to the hospital, and fewer of those people will end up in the ICU. Projections are that the ICU capacity will be around 19% one month out. We can only hope that happens…I wonder if they factored Super Bowl parties into that calculation.

What does that mean for Lake Tahoe ski areas? It’s about to get significantly more crowded, especially for the upcoming three day weekend. The primary impacts are that local hotels and vacation rentals may once again open reservations to non-essential visitors. I’m not kidding myself. Many people were not following the rules, but some were. One case in point would be the village over at the Valley With No Name, which is taking reservations again, beginning with today.

Yes, this is a “blackout period” for Base pass holders this weekend. But the crowds during the Christmas blackout period were larger than recent years. A couple of unnamed sources have said that proportionally, more full passes were sold this year than in previous years. There also doesn’t seem to be any real limits to the numbers of day tickets being sold, just that they must be purchased in advance.

Local restaurants will also be able to offer outdoor dining, even though much of that outdoor dining looks exactly like indoor dining. That in itself is a great thing for businesses that have struggled with the recent shutdown/slowdown. It’s also a win for those that come to Tahoe only for a Diners, Drive-Ins, and Dives tour, with a little sledding and skiing thrown in.

Although Andy and I have been reporting that ski conditions have generally been “pretty good” throughout this season, it’s time we do a bit of a reality check here. “Pretty good” is a relative term compared to the alternatives of endless binges of season three of Cobra Kai on Netflix or doomscrolling on Twitter. It’s pretty good compared to having to go to work each day in a “front of the house” job at the hospital, grocery store, school or other business. But I would like to temper your expectations a bit here.

Here’s the all important Northern Sierra 8 Station Index of Precipitation. This is the graph that compares precipitation to date compared to some of the wettest years, and some of the driest years. As of yesterday, we are at 41% of average in the Northern Sierra. That’s even drier than we were last year at this point. The only drier year is 1976-77, and sadly, I am old enough to remember how poor that season was for skiers. For each day that it does not snow, we are falling even further behind “average.”

The ski area only looks as good as it does as some of those early storms laid a solid ice layer over the rocks and dirt…and a huge investment in snowmaking on many of the groomed runs.

While Andy and I are good at finding areas of the mountain that are skiing better, much of the mountain is not that great, especially for your average visitor. There’s still thin coverage out there off piste, meaning you must keep your eyes open for rocks and stumps, and entire zones are still not great. As an example, Scott’s Chute did open, but hardly anyone is skiing it. Certain sections of Gentian Gully skied well the other day, but the entry is quite technical and the exit quite punchy. Even if access to High T or the upper bowls happens this weekend, I wouldn’t come expecting epic conditions.

The groomed terrain at Alpine is skiing very well, thanks to early season snow making, and a grooming crew that has just been crushing it this season. That said, only about 60% of groomed terrain is currently available with Lakeview and Sherwood not open. So the groomed terrain that is available gets very busy on weekends. It can only ski well for so long before there’s some slick spots and sugar piles. That makes skiing a whole day less attractive.

The non-skiing part of the day will continue to be a challenge at all local resorts. Although the “stay at home” order has been lifted for our area, most of the restrictions continue for indoor areas of the lodge, and for spacing of outdoor seating, and other parts of the ski resort experience. Read that as there is not enough seating to go around on a busy day. Guests are still advised that treating your vehicle as your personal lodge is the best idea. That will not work so well if you are parked along Chalet Road, at White Wolf or Deer Park.

I would highly recommend that you review our updated guide as to “How To Alpine in 20/21″. It was originally a part of a post on New Year’s Day and has now been adapted to become more of a permanent guide for the season. There’s more to it than just wearing a buff everyday.

There’s still no real sign of any change to our current weather pattern. Some models were hinting at a change in the end of the 16 day model run, but that can just keeps getting kicked down the road. Things could change…but there is no strong reasoning to expect any miracles, even though it has happened a couple of times in the past.

So enjoy some skiing, but have realistic expectations. Be nice to the employees. Then be nice to the employees again. We appreciate them being there so we can slide on snow, even if the conditions are just “pretty good.”

There’s no particular report for ski conditions today. This report was written before skiing today, while I watch the webcams and wait for another little drizzle system to pass through. At least today, I was smart enough to wait…

2:30 PM Update

I finally went out at 12pm today, as I haven’t missed a day yet this season. When the radar started looking like it might continue all afternoon, I headed to Alpine, this time with my storm shell. It put in 7 laps before I was feeling really soggy. It was the goggles that really were the issue today. There’s that fogging from the mask thing, added in with 100% humidity and that is tough to battle.

Off piste terrain was like glue, as was terrain that was more churned up by skiers. The best skiing was on runs that have been a little firm the rest of the week. They softened just enough to be easily editable, without soaking up water like a sponge. Run of the day was Ladies Slalom, coupled with Yellow Chair, where there is no flat runout required to get to the chair. Tomorrow should be better.

Day 51 of 51 is in the books…