It’s Complicated (UPDATED)

There’s quite a bit to unpack in this report, so much that I’ll provide these navigational links:

• How’s the skiing and riding?
• Is it ever going to snow?
• California finally releases COVID guidance for ski areas
• Possible spoilers
• JUMP RIGHT TO THE UPDATE

Your skiing and riding update for today

Given that it has not snowed since before Alpine Meadows opened last week, conditions are holding up very well. Today was my ninth day in a row on the mountain, and I’m still having plenty of fun. Some of my friends have noted that they are getting bored with the small amount of terrain that is open, but I look at it as an opportunity for dual sport days. The weather continues to be nice enough for skiing in the morning and biking in the afternoons.

The only thing different to report on conditions today is that Dance Floor was groomed today for the first time in several days. It would probably be more appropriate to say “they ran the groomer over Dance Floor”. The end result was not necessarily a smooth “dance floor”, but it brought the run back to something that most people can navigate. I am amazed that they were able to mow down those big solid moguls. I know I appreciated the refresh.

I’m guessing the impetus for grooming Dance Floor was that much of Weasel was dedicated to racers this morning. There needed to be another route down the mountain. I found myself continuing to enjoy the less crowded, ungroomed areas.

There’s still not much in the works for terrain expansion. The current effort seems to be getting Meadow open. Temperatures overnight have been pretty marginal for snowmaking. At 7am this morning it was 35° at the Alpine Meadows base, and 35° in downtown Sacramento. If only it was cost efficient to make snow at the Deer Park parking lot, where it was 26°, and truck it uphill. Stupid inversions!

We’re still looking at a reasonable possibility for a change in the weather

More and more, it’s looking like we will see a change in the weather from this stagnant pattern. The Pacific North American (PNA) index looks like it starts to trend downward about a week out. For the western US, a high PNA index correlates with a ridge and a low PNA index correlates with troughing. Here’s the most recent forecast:

While it’s not yet showing the real negative phase we would like to see, it’s a start. The GFS model is showing some inside sliders around the 10th of December and again around the 12th. Inside sliders take a more dry “over land approach” from the north and generally produce less snow, but do bring a lot of colder air. There looks to be a better organized system right toward the end of the 16 day model, way out in Fantasy Land. As of now that system looks to be more of a cutoff low, which tend to meander with less influence from a strong jet stream. Still, there is something to look at regarding the weather.

The last time I showed a 16 Day Accumulated Total Precipitation forecast, there was a big white donut hole over much of the western US. It’s nice to see the potential for a significant amount of snow back in the forecast. We hope Ma Nature is not just teasing us.

California Finally Gives Guidance for Ski Area Operations During A Pandemic

Just in the nick of time, the guidelines for operating ski areas in California during the COVID pandemic finally were released yesterday, just 14 days after Tahoe resorts started opening. Fortunately there were not any huge surprises there for the general operations of the “uphill transportation” part of the business. It looks like most of the guidelines were taken straight from the National Ski Area Association’s Ski Well, Be Well playbook, which was released in August.

Overall, the best description would be to say “It’s complicated.” There’s much more to running a ski area than just the “uphill transportation” part. The new guidelines for ski areas focus on the skiing and riding part of the mountain.

The biggest takeaways from the guidance:

• Ski areas are permitted to operate in all current tiers (yellow, orange, red and purple)
• Face coverings are required. Period.
• Ski areas are not permitted to sell day tickets
• Reservation systems or other mechanisms to control crowd counts are encouraged to keep too many people from showing up.
• Parking lots should be either reserved separately or available only to those with season passes or reserved tickets
• Chairs should loaded with space between people unless riders are from the same household.
• Gondolas and trams may operate only at 25% capacity with windows always open. Lines must be outdoors.

All of the rest of resort operations fall under specific guidance for other businesses. Food services and bars must operate just like other restaurants and bars. Employees must get the same training and safety protocols as all businesses. Ski schools and team programs should be operating under the same guidelines as youth sports. You get the idea.

You can read the complete document here.

The team and kids programs are going to be a big challenge for ski areas this year. Keeping groups sizes down to the required levels may prove to be a real challenge when it comes to staffing. The same is true for ski lessons. There may not be enough instructors/ coaches to cover the entire needs.

Alpine Meadows is fortunate that it does not have to deal with a lot of things: Gondolas or trams, overnight lodging, tubing or other ancillary activities, or shopping. That, of course, is why many of us choose to call Alpine Meadows our home mountain.

I’m super leery about the possibility of a reservation system. I’ve definitely heard horror stories from some of the Epic mountains about the lack of reservations available. I will continue to say that the available parking at Alpine Meadows is a great limiter for mountain operations. Even with all lots full, things do not feel crowded if the whole mountain is open. Without Sherwood and Lakeview, it would still be fine if they just limited it to the upper Alpine Meadows lots.

Things only get weird when you start bussing people in from Squaw Valley or remote parking lots in other areas. Imagine how bad it would be if someone built a stupid gondola between Alpine Meadows and the Valley With No Name…I’ll be happy to see that project delayed forever.

Spoiler Alert

There’s still a couple of spoilers that could have a big impact on our love of skiing. There’s not much of any sign yet of a slowdown to the current COVID “third wave”. As much as we have been hammering on wearing a mask to keep our season alive, it has much more to do with everything we do outside of the ski area. I’m hearing a growing sense of complacency because ” the vaccine will be here soon”. We can’t let our guard down yet. There’s two scenarios that could make our season come to an abrupt halt:

• A “stay at home” order from the state of California, similar to the one issued in March. As much as I would like to see an exemption for ski areas, we know what will happen…just like it did last March. A major powder day or holiday would mean a huge influx of visitors.

• An overload of emergency care facilities due to COVID. We’re getting close to that point where hospitals will not be able to accept patients for things like ski injuries, especially those that involve major trauma.

Thursday Update: A combination of the above could be happening…an overload of ICU patients could trigger a “stay at home” order from Governor Newsom. The Sacramento region is expected to hit the ICU caps in the next day or so. Currently their is 22% capacity available in the region and it seems likely that we will drop below the 15% trigger. If so the order would go into effect 24 hours after the order is made.

Squaw Valley Alpine Meadows did tweet tonight that ski area operations are allowed to continue under the order. Some changes will be necessary, to be announced later. I am guessing that the outdoor bar and potentially all food services will be closed and we may see further reductions in capacities for locker rooms and Estelle Sports.

In the bigger picture, the order also includes travel restrictions that may affect visitors. Hotels are supposed limit guests only to essential workers…theoretically short term rentals would fall under the same guideline. Local restaurants will be limited only to takeout orders, with no more outdoor dining. These new restrictions will be re-evaluated in three weeks.

My fingers are crossed that we don’t get to that point…but the recent Thanksgiving holiday does not provide great hope that people can see the big picture. I’m going skiing every day I can…