Two Out Of Three?

Well, the day has come and gone, and that big snowstorm was basically a bust. As of closing, the remote sensor is showing only about 2 inches of accumulation at the base. It is likely more snow fell at the crest but a low rate of snowfall, high winds and skier traffic meant that not much actually accumulated. Let’s look at all three key points:

Overall Snowfall

The point forecast called for 3 to 7 inches today, and the last runs of the GFS suggested a foot was possible. Clearly, neither of those forecasts came true. So we’re calling a complete bust on that. We’ve said all along that these cutoff lows are really difficult to forecast. Looking at the futurecast radar, the low will head south down the coast, then move into southern California. Earlier, models suggested that it may move north just enough to bring back some snow late tonight. I’m not sure I believe that.

A Storm Of People

Technically, the parking lots did not fill today, so it did not get as crowded as it could have been. The problem is that Scott and Lakeview were on windhold, and Sherwood was not attracting many skiers. Races were being held on Yellow and Kangaroo. So that meant that there was a lot of traffic confined to just Summit, Roundhouse and Hotter Wheels.

Compounding issues further was that much of the upper mountain over the hill was also on windhold. So quite a few additional people headed toward Alpine Meadows, seeing that Summit and Sherwood was open. As usual, we heard excited chatter in the breezeway about heading directly to the “backside”, as you know, it’s always better there. Those people should read our reports more often.

Adding insult to injury…although temperatures were not that cold, off piste terrain was frozen pretty solid this morning. Although this prevented many from experiencing a shark attack, it put a whole lot of people on just the groomed runs. By a lot, we mean, A LOT!

The Winds

We called it correctly. A southwest wind up to about 70 mph blew through much of the day. That meant that Scott and Lakeview began the day on windhold. ABC also got thrown into that mix, as it is also sensitive to a southwest wind. ABC and Scott did get off of hold late in the day.

Summation

So we did call 2 out of 3 correctly. I’ll be the first to admit that we applied the 5 run rule today. It’s not that the skiing was poor per se. It was mildly frightening just due to the levels of traffic on most of the groomed runs. Normally, I would take the opportunity to find some lesser travelled lines where I can stay away from people…and they were just not skiing well at all today. I’ll give it a go again tomorrow.

In the upcoming few days, there’s a chance of snow, snain and rain in the forecast each day through Tuesday. There’s absolutely no certainty to any of those systems, as we remain essentially cut off from the polar jet. After that temperatures climb a few degrees late in the week before another weak system arrives via the inside slider route.

Update: Monday Morning Quarterbacking

We should now say “3 out of 4”. We called it, Sunday was the far better day of the weekend. Somewhere between 3 and 4 inches of snow did fall overnight, which is not really a game changer. It did allow for much more off piste skiing, and some of it very fun. As always in these conditions, lower angle terrain skis better than higher angle terrain. The true winners were those that headed directly to Lakeview, where runs had been groomed early in the shift, before the new snow fell. Boot buckle deep powder over smooth runs brought many smiles, at least so people told me.

I had scoped out a lot of different terrain on Friday and managed to come out of the weekend almost rock free. Still, I was tempted by a clean line mid-day on Standard Run and managed to tag a rock pretty good. Lava rock is not kind to bases. Fortunately, it was only a ski and not a body blow. It’s so easy to get powder fever.

The parking lots were basically full Sunday, but with all lifts running and more terrain available, it never really felt crowded. Windholds are a fact of life when it comes to skiing in the Sierra, and we have to leave it to mountain ops to decide when it’s necessary. We think they’re doing an amazing job keeping lifts going.

There’s still a couple of small disturbances in the forecast in the upcoming 7 days. There’s nothing to really call a storm or a pattern change. What can you do other than just go skiing and enjoy it?