That Weekend Storm…Biggerized?

The models are building some strength into the storm for Saturday. The last three model runs have shown increasing amounts of snow on Saturday, with the 6Z run again showing the potential for more than a foot of new snow. With that snow, we also will be seeing a lot of wind.

The point forecast for mid-mountain is less bullish on snow and very bullish on wind:

So there you go. The snow totals will likely end up somewhere between the 3-5 inches shown in the automated point forecast and the last few GFS runs. That said, last Friday’s GFS runs called last weekends increased snowfall pretty well.

Afternoon Update

The afternoon model runs continue to push for the idea of 12-14 inches of snow possible through the end of the day Saturday. We also want to note that the automated point forecast is also picking up on that idea, now showing 3 to 7 inches possible on Saturday. Winds have also been slightly trended down for day time hours tomorrow.

So what should you expect for Saturday?

• The storm will arrive overnight, and by storm we mean people. While many will be expecting a powder day, it’s likely to be another powder hour. Some people will miss it while they are parking their family truckster at a remote lot.

• Winds are likely to be an issue for some lifts. Assuming winds come from the southwest, holds could happen on Scott and Lakeview again and possibly others.

• The snow levels will be low, keeping the snow light. While that’s cool and all, we really need more of a spackling right now. The snow will likely not be bottomless. Expect to hit icy moguls and ruts under the new snow. The best experience will be on previously groomed or otherwise smooth terrain.

• It’s definitely shark season. Warmer than average temperatures the last two weeks have done a lot of work in exposing rocks in non-groomed terrain. There’s nothing that will wreck your weekend faster than hitting theses submerged obstacles that are just several inches under the fluff. Ski with care, especially if you’re not at Alpine Meadows today to “preview” the terrain.

• While people will arrive for the powder, the real story will be the improved conditions for Sunday. Having a fresh surface for the grooming team to work on is a great thing. In ungroomed terrain, some of the spiciness below the powder should get exposed, making it easier to avoid obstacles. Winds should also be less of a factor.

In all seriousness, come enjoy the new snow. Remember that it’s not March 2019 and the base is a bit sketchy. Ski with care.