I had to make today a short day, due to having a doggo in the car. So that meant just hot laps on Summit this morning. The message to be delivered today is that the frontside of the mountain is looking awfully good for a season where we currently stand at close to 50% of normal snowfall. I stopped on the first run to catch a shot of Alpine Bowl and Dance Floor just to make sure you know that the season is far from over at Alpine Meadows. We’ve talked a lot lately about how Sherwood is just about done, and not enough about the front side, which to the untrained eye could be called “normal”.
Every primary groomer on the front side still has fantastic coverage, where you can rally pretty much all day without too much worry about rocks or other obstacles. We’ve mentioned several times this season that it is a testament to the snowmaking team and the grooming team for getting the snow where it needs to be. Obviously, snowmaking is not happening at this time of the year, but all of that effort in the early season clearly was worth it. It’s fairly certain that most of these runs will be fine into April, unless we get abnormal warmth or rains.
Some of the lesser traveled groomers, which generally had less (or no) snowmaking in the early season are still pretty good as well. We’ve noted very limited rocks only on Red Ridge and Ladies Slalom.
In terms of off piste skiing, things are still quite skiable, pending temperatures that allow snow to soften. The only terrain that is pretty sharky is the steep terrain: Scott Chute, Promised Land, Palisades and the right side of the Face, Sympathy Face and Waterfall.
Snow This Weekend…and Next Weekend
The forecast for snow is holding solid for this weekend, only with slightly faster timing. Winds and cooler temperatures will be arriving Saturday. Small amounts of snow should begin late Saturday into Sunday. Tahoe is still in the middle of a split, with areas to the north and south expecting more snow. In the middle, models continue to show 1-3 inches in the Tahoe basin. The last 2 model runs have shown up to a foot of snow in the Lassen area, and one wonders if that portion of the storm could sag farther south. I won’t be skiing this weekend, so maybe it will happen.
The more interesting news is that the last two model runs are showing another storm moving in around the 7th. The last couple of model runs have shown amounts measured in feet rather than inches. That’s a significant change! The 18z GFS run shows a potential for 1-3 feet of snow at this point, with good cold air support. That’s just one model run, so nothing to hang your hat on yet. It’s still 8 days out in the models, which is far more reliable than 16 days out in Fantasyland. The storm for this weekend has held together in the models for a week now and the GFS has been fairly on target this year with the few storms we have seen.
Friday Morning Update:
Model runs are still holding on to 1-3 inches of snow for the weekend, now mostly Saturday night. For the March 7th storm, the last two model runs show the low becoming more of a cutoff low and drifting down the coast offshore. That would limit precipitation, but not eliminate it. Still, the teleconnections below give some hope for something to happen. It’s worth watching.
Friday Afternoon Update:
The good news is that the models have trended upwards in the last few runs for this weekend. The NAM now shows 5-7 inches possible Saturday night into Sunday morning. Saturday could be a blowout through, with very high winds in the forecast. Expect wind holds. The bad news is that the weather gods have played the Nope card on a storm that was looking good for the following weekend. The last two model runs keep it totally offshore and send it into Baja. The teleconnections are still holding out for a change…
There’s two bits of supporting data that support an opportunity for some storm action. It’s the type of sign I have been watching for. The Pacific North American (PNA) pattern index is swinging from positive to negative. Negative is good when it comes to west coast storms. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) index is also starting to come around. It’s been very positive for even longer than the PNA index. While the current models don’t bring it all of the way to negative, they do get it to just about neutral…far better than way positive.
I would not go far far as saying this is a “pattern change” or the start of the March Miracle. It’s just that the odds of a significant storm, that might just be “one and done”, are greater than they have been in a long time. Many people will welcome that change…we’ll be watching it.