Temperatures will be nearing 50 over the next three days, so the corn lovers shall rejoice through Saturday at Alpine Meadows. We had a couple of freeze and thaw cycles. Reports are that spring conditions are again becoming perfect on south facing slopes in the morning and west facing slopes in the afternoon.
The only problem is that coverage is beginning to get thin in sunny areas, meaning that it’s easy to end up in a willow patch, in the middle of a bunch of scree or cliffed out of you’re out adventuring off piste. Even Sherwood Run has been requiring a watchful eye for rocks.
Fortunately, after a week of just depressing weather data, things are looking up again. A small storm is approaching Sunday that may tap into a bit of subtropical moisture. If the snow amounts pan out, it could be the biggest storm since the new year, at around 8 inches. Another storm is on its heels for midweek. As of today, the various models are calling for 1-3 feet. The thing is that the teleconnections are beginning to support the idea of a larger storm.
BA at OpenSnow.com has been focusing on the PNA Index lately, pointing out, like we have been, that it’s really one of the best indicators of Sierra snow storm potential. Looking at the last index posted, it’s easy to see how the last big negative cycle lines up with our November-December cycle. There’s a few little negative dips that correlate with some smaller storms. As of today, the PNA index plummets next week. Woo hoo!
We just need to remember that those forecasts can change rapidly, as we saw a couple of weeks ago, where a strong negative trend disappeared overnight (see Feb 8 and 10th posts). BA seems to think this drop may be more permanent as it relates to the NAO Index (North Atlantic Oscillation) going positive. His logic makes sense to me. I hope it snows soon before our daffodils really get out of the ground…