In The Outdoor Air

Did it ever feel good to be back out on the mountain today, in the outdoor air. I’ve been missing quite a bit of skiing lately due to the complexities of a common cold that just does not want to leave. Having done nearly 48 hours of inactivity since I last skied, I paid attention to Bob’s advice today and took advantage of the outdoor air.

The last time I skied, most of the off piste terrain was still skiing like corral reef and frozen chicken heads, so today was a pleasant blessing. It was pretty easy to find runs right off of Summit where that icy gloom was indeed covered by 4 inches of new snow. That meant that turns were scratchy rather than bottomless. So my learning goal today was to keep my weight centered right over my skis on each turn, preventing my tips from driving in too far, and my tails from scrubbing into the ice. No matter what my grade was today, just having the ability to ski off piste again was a joy. My picks of the day were Tower 20 and Skadi Hill.

The groomed surfaces were also skiing well today. There were a few icy patches that kept catching me off guard. In particular, right at Sandy’s Corner and on the runout to Summit, things seemed unnaturally firm. My guess is that some wet snow was made recently and the mix was a bit too wet, or we’re still just finding some ice crust from the New Years Day surprise rain.

Looking at the upcoming weekend, based on today, I think it will be pretty busy. For years, we’ve noticed that Friday is the new Saturday. Lot 3 was full when I left just before noon and Lot 4 and the Subway lots were about half full, although very loosely packed. That said, people should be able to spread out around the mountain, and ski off piste. The caveat is that we could see some wind holds on Saturday morning as the next storm sets in. Even that is not a problem unless the upper mountain shuts down at Squaw and visitors are directed to Alpine.

Speaking of storms, the models continue to be super variable and frustrating for people that want to make sense of it. In keeping myself couch bound, I’ve spent a lot of hours looking at models and reviewing BA’s forecasts. My most important resource is the WeatherWest.com comments section. Although Daniel Swain is not posting as frequently himself, there is a dedicated community of professional meteorologists, amateur meteorologists and weather junkies that talk about the weather each day. There’s been over a 1000 comments posted just this week.

So in simplifying all of that. Here’s what I see. For the last two weeks the trough has been parked just a bit too far inland, resulting in these weak inside sliders that are moisture starved. The models are finally in agreement that that ridge moves west a bit as we get into next week, allowing stronger storms to move in. By Wednesday into Thursday, it looks like we will get a classic Gulf Of Alaska low pressure system bringing plenty of moisture and cold air. By Saturday the 18th, the low retrogrades and models seem to keep it hanging around in the Pacific into the end of January.

So the numbers will definitely change, but as of today, here’s my thoughts on new snow. They’re slightly more conservative than BA for the Monday storm. The Wednesday storm is 6 days out so numbers are a bit tougher there there. This is the storm that models have shown with a possibility of 5-8 feet. My number sticks closer to “typical GOA storm without an AR influence”.

No matter how much new snow falls, I plan to make the best of it…