Chill Not Chilly

Bright sunshine, perfect groomers and an empty hill, you can’t ask for much more.

Today was pretty much the perfect non-powder day at Alpine Meadows.  All the employees were relaxed and chatty, as around 50 skiers showed up for the opening on Summit this morning.  The sun showed up early and highlighted how well doused with snow the whole mountain is looking.

The first couple of hours this morning were outstanding, as lap after lap of perfect corduroy were available across the whole mountain.  A little off the beaten track, you could still find some soft and lightly skied powder stashes.  Even the more heavily skied areas were delightful as the sun started to soften the  non-groomed runs.

Today was a good day to try and hone skills in the park as both the Charity and Tiegel parks were well manicured with almost noone using them.  With barely anyone on the slopes, there was happily much less chance of getting embarrassed when poor technique led to less than elegant landings.

After ten laps of: Roundhouse to Charity, medium jump, cut across Dance Floor to Tiegel Chutes, four mini jumps on Tiegel and and repeat; it was quickly time to go.  Pulling out of the parking lot around 11.30am revealed a steady stream of cars coming up the hill. It seemed a whole bunch of people decided to join the fun from lunchtime onwards.

Here’s a short snippet from the Sacramento forecast discussion today that says it all: “uncertainty is high.” The models have come together just a bit more and settling on some sort of middle ground for what happens with the weather as we head into the next weekend. One thing is certain – anyone that is considering traveling in the Tahoe area this weekend should pay attention. Fortunately the forecast is looking a bit less dramatic over the last  24 hours, as the GFS has weakened the storm a bit and the Euro has increased the forecast a bit.

Things start getting interesting on Friday, when the rain part of the storm moves in. Forecasters yesterday were talking about snow levels as high as 9,000 feet yesterday. Today that has been tempered to closer to 8,000 feet, depending on where you’re reading. There’s questions about how much rain will fall before snow levels drop on Saturday morning. By Saturday morning, snow levels should drop to lake level for the last part of the first round. The latest model run of the GFS still brings the potential for 5 inches of precipitation near the crest by Saturday.

That storm is just beginning to make its way onto the shorter range NAM, which projects closer to 3 inches of precipitation near the crest.

 In short, Friday looks to be bad for a day of skiing, but potentially a good day for driving over the Summit with higher snow levels. Saturday could be good for skiing with a couple of caveats. Intensive amounts of rain followed by intensive amounts of snow could definitely affect mountain operations as avalanche conditions intensify. Winds could also be an issue, although right now people are talking more about the rain and snow.

 As of today, a second wave moves in for Sunday into Monday. The GFS calls for another 4-5 inches of precipitation for this one near the south end of the lake. At our end, it looks closer to 2-3 inches, although that bullseye has moved around with each model run today. The good news for skiers and riders is that much more cold air will be in place by Sunday, and forecasters are talking about snow levels near 3,000 to 4,000 feet. Good news for skiers, but bad news for anyone that needs to drive home from Tahoe at the end of the weekend.

These storms are not quite your typical Gulf Of Alaska lows. The amount of moisture they provide is heavily influenced by how well they entrain moisture from the tropics, and exactly where the jet stream runs in to the west coast. There’s been a lot of variability in the forecast through the week, and that will be likely to continue to be changes as we get closer. So as several forecasters mentioned today, prepare for somewhere between 1 and 100 inches of snow this weekend.