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Still A Fluid Forecast

The good news is that it’s a “Learn To Ski” weekend at Alpine Meadows. The $69 all inclusive package is a great deal for those that want to try out the sport. We hope it’s offered again later in the season as this weekend will not be very conducive to productive learning and fun experiences for beginners! The forecast continues to be quite variable. This weekend promises to offer everything from sogginess and winds on Saturday and a return to freezing temperatures for Sunday. Beyond that time period, the models are pretty inconsistent, especially when it comes to cold air support and the snow levels.

If you’re looking for some real time ski reports, we have nothing. We skipped it yesterday and today, as did just about everyone else I have talked to. Looking at the webcams, the top of the mountain has been mostly shrouded in fog. The base of the mountain has been looking a bit lot dreary and wet, with brown streaks showing through the snow. The remote data sensor shows about 1 inch of base loss since this storm started. Actually, there has not been a ton of rain out of the event so far, but that could change tonight and tomorrow. Here’s the latest GFS run for Saturday.

The GFS for Saturday brings a big clear powder dump…

Snow levels are expected to rise to 9,000 feet by tomorrow before crashing down to 5,000 feet after the main front passes through. So yes, we could see a few inches of fresh snow on top of a wet sponge for Sunday. Depending on how cold the air temperature gets Saturday night, things could also end up very firm. One local commenting at the WeatherWest.com site noted a similar storm last season where we had snow that was a thin layer of light powder over a cream cheese base…it’s not as fun as it may sound. A similar storm happened last March. But after not skiing for several days, I figure I will have to go sample the goods on Sunday….and maybe Saturday if the cooling trend in the forecast continues.

How much snow will fall as temperatures drop like a rock later Saturday?

As we head into next week, the GFS throws in another little wave late Monday into Tuesday with another round of possible subtropical tap built in. Later in the week, around the 17th, we could maybe possibly see an uncertain chance of a colder storm. As currently forecast, that storm brings a very strong low off the coast that will likely bring very high winds along with that possible possibility of bigger snowfalls. To his credit, Bryan Allegretto at Open Snow.com has been pretty accurate at calling things lately, in particular when it comes to snow levels, even when things look grim.

An impressive low may sit off the coast next weekend…

4 thoughts on “Still A Fluid Forecast”

  1. Speaking of Learn to Ski Weeks, I recall doing two, I think 1962 and ’63, at Sugar Bowl. This occurred during semester break at Cal for me. This meant lift tickets Monday through Friday, two two hour ski lessons each of the five days, room (a dormer) and meals all five days. The first year my instructor was some guy named Jim McConkey. The next year it was Mike Wiegele. They influenced me — gee, what a surprise. The cost, which has stayed indelibly printed on my memory, was $66.50.

  2. Today wasn’t that bad if you stuck to the obvious. Precip was light and came in waves. Probably better than super firm firmness. Brown spots only getting worse but manageable. Looks like tomorrow will suck. Be careful on Sunday.

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